Another doom post ... just look at that Shiller PE.

[Shiller PE at 39.4](https://i.imgur.com/bmroL3M.png), surpassed only by the peak of the 2000 tech bubble. Back then, it took [15 years for real-dollar market prices to recover](https://i.imgur.com/2M1waVh.png). How about the [market cap to GDP ratio](https://i.imgur.com/bxlXkEq.png)? Way above year 2000 level. But perhaps this is all because the SP500 is more international ... yet [SP500 revenue share from abroad has been between 35% and 42% (+/- 3%) since these data start in 2002](https://i.imgur.com/t9QhrfD.png). Anyway, I'm hedged out of the market. I'm sure this time it's different. ----- Edit: ~~here is [inflation adjusted M1 money supply, and M1 divided by GDP](https://i.imgur.com/GBrHFYz.png). They spiked in 2021, then began falling modestly in 2001. I suggest the better measure is GDP adjusted. This shot up by a factor of four.~~ No, what you want is [M2 money supply divided by GDP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1UD6X) because as was pointed out to me, M1 jumped for artificial reasons. By this metric, the money supply is just about where it was before the covid money printing. So 'market up because printing money' doesn't seem to work. Then again, 30 year TIPS are [yielding about 2.7% over inflation](https://i.imgur.com/O9X4aUt.png) and represent a safe, inflation protected alternative to stocks that could significantly appreciate if there is a round of QE in a downturn. [Here's US - S&P 500 Shiller Excess CAPE Yield](https://i.imgur.com/ecSp2av.png), which is essentially a CAPE-derived equity risk premium over 10 year real bond yields. Also pretty low (1.7%) but not as low as dip of dotcom bubble (-1.2%). If you use 20 or 30 year real bond yields, then it drops to 0.1%.