Microsoft ($MSFT) is down ~31% from its ATH

AI 요약

=== 요약 === - 작성자는 MSFT가 ATH 대비 약 31% 하락했으며, 2주마다 분할 매수(DCA) 중이며 이를 '강력 매수'로 보고 있습니다. - 실적 서프라이즈, Azure 성장, CAPEX 우려, 애널리스트 목표가, OpenAI 집중 리스크에 대한 데이터를 제공합니다. - 품질 평가: 잘 조사된 추측 (실적 데이터, 애널리스트 목표가, 거시적 요인을 사용하지만 개인적 확신에 의존). === 심리 === 강세 === 투자 아이디어 === MSFT - 롱 | 신뢰도: 0.75 | 심리: +0.7 발언자: u/gstxprz 투자 논리: 1. 사실: 최근 실적 호조에도 불구하고 ATH 대비 약 31% 하락; 애널리스트 컨센서스는 '강력 매수'이며 평균 목표가는 약 $597 (약 60% 상승 여력). 2. 연결고리: 시장이 CAPEX와 Azure 성장 우려에 과잉 반응하여 밸류에이션 괴리 발생. 3. 판단: DCA 전략은 공포 기반 매도세를 활용하여 장기적 수익을 창출. 4. 리스크: OpenAI 집중 리스크; AI CAPEX 효과 미발현; 거시/관세 압력이 마진에 부담. 기간: 장기 핵심 포인트: - ATH 대비 약 31% 하락 구간에서 DCA - 시장이 CAPEX에 과잉 반응, 실적 호조 무시 - 평균 목표가 $597은 60% 상승 여력 의미 - OpenAI 백로그에 집중 리스크 - 다음 실적 4월 29일, 예상 EPS $4.05 === 댓글 요약 === 커뮤니티 반응은 엇갈림: 일부는 프랑스의 미국 기술 외면과 OpenAI의 재정적 지속 가능성을 약세 요인으로 지적하는 반면, 다른 이들은 장기 보유 확신이나 개인적 손실을 표명. 여러 댓글은 광범위한 SaaS 약세를 지적하지만 MSFT를 양질의 매수 기회로 봄.

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I am personally DCAing this stock every two weeks. Not sure if I’m looking for confirmation bias to continue buying or actually objective analysis. Just seems like a screaming buy to me. Had Claude compile the numbers: 

All-time high was around $541 back in late October 2025. That’s a \~$170 drop in roughly 5 months.

Q2 FY26 earnings (Jan 29, 2026) were the biggest hit. Microsoft actually beat on revenue ($81.3B vs $80.3B expected) and EPS ($4.14 vs $3.92 expected). Net income was up 60% YoY. Didn’t matter. Azure grew 39% but the street wanted more, and capex came in at $37B for the quarter, up 65% YoY. People got spooked about whether all that AI infrastructure spending would ever pay off at the scale they were pricing in.

The stock dropped 11.7% in a single day. Biggest single-day drop since March 2020. Before that, in November 2025, the stock already had its longest losing streak since 2011, nine consecutive down days, wiping nearly $350B in market cap. This was mostly sentiment-driven as investors started questioning the broader AI trade.

OpenAI: concentration risk is a real concern that came up during earnings. Nearly half of Microsoft’s $625B backlog ties back to AI model companies including OpenAI. If OpenAI stumbles, that ripples.

Macro/tariff noise also didn’t help. Hardware powering Azure data centers could get more expensive, which squeezes margins at a time when margins are already under pressure from capex.

Broader context: Q1 2025 MSFT was already down \~11% before all this, sliding to $375 in April 2025 as Azure growth (31% that quarter) missed high expectations and competition from AWS and Google Cloud heated up.

Full FY25 Numbers:

	•	Revenue up 15%

	•	Net income up 16%

	•	EPS: $13.64

	•	Azure and cloud services: up \~39%

Analyst sentiments: Consensus is “Strong Buy.” Average price target is \~$597, which would be a \~60% move from here. High end is $675, low end is $392. Next earnings is April 29. EPS estimate is $4.05.

Stifel cut their target from $640 to $520 after the Jan earnings. Melius Research recently cut theirs to $400. Most others are still sitting well above current price.

Anyone watching MSFT? Thoughts?

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아이디어

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