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Incoming breakdown on why I believe western oil stocks will continue to be the stock market play and also understanding what Trumps plan of action for Iran is and how the two are linked. TLDR at the bottom
I've been promoting my belief in a specific western oil stock (PBR.A) for a while now, you can check outmy post history on it if you like. But with the way this war keeps developing, it's looking to me like we're going to be seeing all western oil company stocks shoot up once the reality of the situation we're in connects to the rest of the population.
To me, it's wishful thinking that this war will be coming to an end any time shortly, I'll explain my thoughts on that below in a bit. However, what will most likely happen with the continued hitting of oil refineries in the gulf, the blockade on the strait of hormuz, and now the houthis injecting themselves into this war, is we're going to see a world in desperate need of oil with only one real direction to turn for relief, and that's west.
Now while I still think PBR.A is the best play, other established companies like Chevron/Exxon, or even low caps i keep seeing mentioned on reddit like EONR, WTI, etc will go on ExxonMobil, see big increases. And while I'm not familiar with many Canadian oil stock companies, my bet would be on them as well. These are established players that are out of the war zone with the means and ability to ship oil to countries in need
The reality of why these companies should see an increase in business overall though, comes from what Trumps plan for the war is. People need to understand a few things about Trump (I'm going to try and leave out my personal feelings about this jabroni during this rant). The guy hates to look weak. He's the very embodiment of a chicken-hawk, beating the drum zealously for war with others, while never experiencing it and running from it himself. Unfortunately though, he got enamored with US military power as a result of getting drunk on his own hubris when we took out the Venezuelan president to little push back on both the Venezuelan and world stage. Similar to Hitler feeling he could do anything after taking France, and then launching an invasion into Russia, Trump has done the same with Venezuela into now Iran.
But here's the rub. Iran can't/won't be defeated by the cutting off of the executive head, and Trump is now realizing that. They're making a mockery of him by targeting ally oil refineries and still shipping out oil to various other countries when possible, right under his nose. This leaves Trump with only two options (a truce is not one of them, each side has ridiculous demands, and trump is embarrassed to be seen as weak).
The first is turning this into another mid-east forever war. In his mind, if this war goes on and on until another president takes the mantle in a few years, then Trump never lost the war, it just became someone else's problem for them to lose on. He can do the whole, we were winning it before we were handicapped by the democrats blah blah blah shtick to his base.
The second is invading Kharg island, cutting off Iran's ability to ship oil out, and make this an even costlier problem for the world's nations. To me this is the most likely case. **The logic being the only way out is through**. If the US takes Kharg island, they stop oil shipments from Iran cold. With continued attacks on other gulf refineries from Iran, and attacks on Russian refineries from Ukraine, nearly all eastern oil is under the threat of destruction or actual destruction. This would create a need for oil from the west, AND create an economic disaster for all other countries in general with the hope being, they'll get involved in the war in Iran (most likely on the US side and work towards regime change) in order to end this global oil/economic issue
TLDR: The Iran war is going to get wider. Trump will invade Kharg island and cut off all Iranian oil shipments, forcing other countries to intercede in the war, most likely on the US's behalf. Western oil companies on the stock market will shoot up.
Disclaimer: i don't know shit about fuck, I am invested in PBR.A