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The situation with Iran is moving so fast it’s hard to keep up, but the last 24 hours have been a massive rollercoaster of "are we going to war or not?"
After a weekend where things looked like they were heading toward a total infrastructure collapse, we’ve hit a very strange, tense pause. On Sunday, Trump dropped a heavy 48-hour ultimatum on Truth Social, basically saying if Iran didn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would "obliterate" their power plants, starting with the biggest ones first. It felt like the clock was ticking down to a massive blackout across Iran.
But then, this morning, everything flipped. Trump announced he’s extending that deadline by five days. He’s claiming that the U.S. and Iran have had "very good and productive conversations" and that a "total resolution" to the war might actually be on the table. It’s a huge tonal shift, but there’s a catch: Iran’s Foreign Ministry is flat-out denying any of this is happening. They’re calling his comments a tactical move to try and cool down energy prices and buy time for military positioning.
While the "peace talks" are up in the air, the economic war is very real. To help with the $100+ oil prices we've been seeing, the administration just issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that are already at sea. The Treasury is basically saying they want to use Iran’s own oil against them to flood the market and bring prices down at the pump.
On the ground, it’s still incredibly volatile. Over the weekend, Iranian missiles hit southern Israel near a nuclear research site, injuring over 100 people. Israel didn't wait long to respond, hitting targets in Tehran this morning that have already caused some localized power outages.
So, we’re in this weird five-day window where the U.S. is holding back on the "big" strikes while the diplomats (or intermediaries like Turkey and Oman) try to find an exit ramp. Iran, meanwhile, has warned that if their grid is touched, they’ll retaliate by hitting power and water plants across the entire Gulf.
Everyone is basically holding their breath until Friday. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, but the next few days are going to determine if we’re heading toward a deal or a much darker escalation.
Energy sector has been checked for now.