A Bank Younger Buffett would have bought...

AI 요약

=== 요약 === - 작성자는 Greene County Bancorp (GCBC)에 대한 가치 투자 논리를 제시합니다. GCBC는 $21.68에 거래되는 소형주 뉴욕 커뮤니티 은행입니다. - 핵심 주장은 Mutual Holding Company (MHC) 구조에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 51% 대주주가 배당금을 포기함으로써 은행이 소수 주주를 위해 장부 가치를 빠르게 복리화할 수 있게 합니다. - 품질 평가: 잘 조사된 DD. 작성자는 여러 밸류에이션 모델을 사용하고, 특정 구조적 이점(MHC 면제)을 강조하며, 최근 내부자 매수를 논리를 뒷받침하는 증거로 제시합니다. === 시장 심리 === 강세 === 투자 아이디어 === GCBC - 롱 | 신뢰도: 0.90 | 심리: +0.80 발언자: u/SuccessTasty9149 논리: 1. 사실: GCBC는 대주주가 배당금을 포기하는 MHC 구조를 가지고 있으며, 최근 내부자 매수와 탁월한 47.1% 효율성 비율을 보유하고 있습니다. 2. 연결고리: 포기된 배당금 덕분에 은행은 자본을 유지하고 주당 장부 가치를 경쟁사보다 훨씬 빠르게 성장시킬 수 있으며, 소수 주주는 비용을 부담하지 않고 혜택을 누립니다. 3. 판결: GCBC는 저평가되고 잘 운영되는 복리 기계이며, 7개 밸류에이션 모델의 평균 공정 가치 목표는 $28.28입니다(약 30% 상승 여력). 4. 위험: 소형주 유동성 제약, 지역 은행 거시경제 리스크, 또는 MHC 배당 면제 허용에 대한 잠재적 규제 변경. 기간: 장기 핵심 포인트: - MHC 구조가 51% 소유주에 대한 배당금 포기. - 유지된 자본이 장부 가치를 빠르게 성장시킴. - CEO와 두 명의 이사가 최근 주식을 매수. - 효율성 비율이 탁월한 47.1%로 하락. - 7개 밸류에이션 모델의 평균 목표 $28.28.

점수 18

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Today, folks were going to be talking about a boring business, a business overlooked during this AI craze, a business running since 1889. Drum roll please..... GCBC Green County Bancorp is a New York Community Bank. Its market cap is 377m, and the current price is 21.68. 

Here's a quick snapshot courtsey of Claude.

|Metric|Value|Context|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Current Price|**$21.68**|Down from $44.90 ATH|
|52-Week Range|$20.00 – $26.04|Near 52-week low|
|Market Cap|**\~$377M**||
|Shares Outstanding|17.22M||
|EPS Q2 (Dec 2025)|**$0.60**|\+36.4% YoY|
|TTM EPS (est.)|**\~$2.20**|Accelerating|
|Book Value/Share|**$15.17**|Growing rapidly|
|P/E|**\~9.85x**||
|P/Book|**1.43x**|vs. CMTV's 2.86x|
|ROE (FY2025)|**16.27%**|Up from 12.87% in FY2024|
|ROAA (MRQ)|**1.33%**|Up from 0.93%|
|NIM (MRQ)|**2.83%**|Accelerating rapidly|
|Efficiency Ratio|**47.1%**|Down from 57.5% — exceptional|
|Dividend (annual)|$0.40 (4 × $0.10)|1.85% yield|
|Payout Ratio|**18.7%**|Extremely conservative|
|Beta|**0.79**|Moderate volatility|
|Founded|1889|136 years|
|Fiscal Year End|**June 30**|Unusual — important to note|

51% of the shares are owned by Greene County Bancorp MHC. They have waived about 36.6 million in dividends, so the bank retains the capital, allowing the company to increase its book value faster. 

This is almost unheard of in banking. The MHC structure means:

* The bank keeps \~54 cents of every dividend dollar it would otherwise pay out
* That retained capital goes directly into book value per share growth
* Minority shareholders (you) benefit from the compounding without paying for it
* Total asset growth of 262% since 2016 and tangible book value per share growth of 184% since 2016 [sec](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001409970/000140997024000036/q224exhibit991er.htm) — this is the MHC waiver at work

One of my biggest filters is finding insider buys, which we have had a CEO + Two Directors buying in March of 2026. They have a buyback program and a dividend. 

Here are some valuations that Claude helped me produce

**Graham Number**√(22.5 × $2.20 × $15.17)**$27.40**\+26%Book value grew from $12.10 → $15.17 in 18 months [sec](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001409970/000140997024000036/q224exhibit991er.htm) — Graham Number reprices upward every quarter

**DDM**MHC-adjusted earnings yield**$29.50**\+36%Standard DDM understates — MHC waiving dividends means earnings compound into book. Use earnings-based DDM: $2.20 ÷ (9% − 6.5%) = $29.50

**DCF**$2.20 growing 20%, 9% disc**$32.00**\+48%NIM from 2.83% toward 3.25% = 15–20% EPS growth for 3+ years. Even at 12% discount = $24 — still above current

**P/E Multiple**$2.20 × 12x peer avg**$26.40**\+22%Community banks 10–14x. At 12x = $26.40. At 13x (efficiency ratio premium) = $28.60

**Price/Book**$15.17 × 1.75x**$26.55**\+22%16.27% ROE justifies 1.7–2.0x book. At 1.75x = $26.55. At 2.0x = $30.34

**PEG (Lynch)**9.85x ÷ 36% growth = 0.27**$28.60**\+32%PEG 0.27 — target PEG 0.5 for banks = P/E 18x capped at 13x = $28.60

**Owner Earnings**$2.20 ÷ 8% target yield**$27.50**\+27%At Buffett's 7% yield = $31.43. At 8% = $27.50. All above the current price

  
**Average $28.28+30%**All 7 models above current price — strong convergence

  
Yes, I use AI to help me find the story. If that is a crime, I am guilty. I still find these stocks using OpenInsider to start, as well as Seeking Alpha and Simply Wall Street to find ideas. 

My core metrics were hit 

Insider buying 

Legitimately well-run bank

Small-micro cap

Shareholder-friendly (buybacks/dividends) 

Growing Rev

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아이디어

더 보기 Reddit — r/ValueInvesting