21 Investment write-ups to look at

Another batch of company write-ups from Substack this week. Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/) # Americas **Long-term Investing** on [**Netflix**](https://sanj2f3.substack.com/p/netflix-nflx-9a7) (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$357bn) Bounced 14% after dropping Paramount-WBD bid and securing US$2.8bn breakup fee. Tactical catalyst trade, not a fundamental deep dive. **Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Deere & Company**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/riskreward-vs-momentum) (🇺🇸 DE US - US$171bn) Earnings update. Q1 2026 beat with guidance raise to US$4.5-5bn net income. Construction +34% and Small Ag +24% signal cycle bottom, but at 34x trailing P/E the recovery looks priced in. **Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Booking Holdings**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/booking-holdings-is-it-a-buy-at-15x) (🇺🇸 BKNG US - US$138bn) The most obvious bear case for Booking is AI disruption, and the market is pricing it in at 15x earnings after a 24% YTD decline. But Q4 room night growth accelerating at 9% with margin expansion suggests the structural threat is overestimated. **Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/mercadolibre-the-market-is-wrong) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech platform where Mercado Pago now processes US$200bn+ annually. At 45x P/E the valuation limits the near-term value case, but Rijnberk argues the market is wrong on the growth trajectory. **Heavy Moat Investments** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://heavymoatinvestments.substack.com/p/the-company-that-divides-long-term) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) A second take on MercadoLibre, this time through a competitive positioning lens. 20/20 score across e-commerce, fintech, and logistics in Latin America. The premium valuation reflects dominance; this is one for patient capital awaiting a cheaper entry. **AlphaSeeker84** on [**Apollo Global Management**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/apo-two-earnings-streams-one-mispriced) (🇺🇸 APO US - US$61bn) Dual fee-related and spread-related earnings model generates stable cash across cycles. 21x P/E looks fair, not cheap, for an alt manager with growing retirement assets. **HighTech Investing** on [**PayPal Holdings**](https://hightechinvesting.substack.com/p/paypal-shares-after-the-crash-what) (🇺🇸 PYPL US - US$37bn) At 6.3x EV/EBIT and 8.7x P/E for a payments business generating US$5bn+ free cash flow, the market seems to be pricing in permanent decline. Potential M&A target or breakup candidate at these levels. **Wealthy Readings** on [**Enphase Energy and SolarEdge Technologies**](https://www.wealthyreadings.com/p/a-second-breath-for-solar-names) (🇺🇸 ENPH US, 🇮🇱 SEDG US - US$6bn, US$2bn) Both solar inverter leaders down 85% from 2022 highs on inventory cycle now reversing. Enphase profitable with premium micro-inverter architecture; SolarEdge still loss-making. **Cundill Deep Value** on [**PENN Entertainment**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/whos-next-penn-entertainment-penn) (🇺🇸 PENN US - US$2bn) The stock is down 90% from 2021 highs, yet the company still operates real casino assets across 28 jurisdictions generating cash. Activist HG Vora secured three board seats and is pushing for digital division exit and asset monetisation. **Jam Invest** on [**Herbalife**](https://jaminvest.substack.com/p/n-and-i-73-i-see-i-see-what-you-cant) (🇺🇸 HLF US - US$2bn) 10x EV/EBIT with US$300m+ FCF visibility by 2028. Post-COVID distributor recovery gaining traction, but US$1bn net debt and the controversial direct-selling model remain overhangs. **Waterboy Stocks** on [**Empire State Realty Trust**](https://waterboystocks.substack.com/p/empire-state-realty-trust) (🇺🇸 ESRT US - US$1bn) Trades at 0.63x NAV after a 45% five-year decline. CEO Malkin owns 13.3% with a strong balance sheet, but NYC office headwinds show no clear reversal yet. The valuation could stay depressed for a long time. **Cundill Deep Value** on [**Gray Television**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/deep-value-report-gray-media-gtn) (🇺🇸 GTN US - US$528m) Local broadcast stations generating advertising, cable carriage fees, and political revenue. There is, however, a real risk that the US$5.8bn debt load overwhelms cash generation. High-risk deep value where the margin of safety rests on asset coverage, not earnings. **ppinvest007** on [**Docebo**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/an-ai-first-lms-provider-at-a-fundamental) (🇨🇦 DCBO US - US$516m) Earnings update. AI-first learning management SaaS with 94% recurring revenue and 20.5% annual contract value growth. The US$60m buyback signals management confidence, though visibility at this scale remains limited. **Enterprising Investor** on [**NSTS Bancorp**](https://enterprisinginvestor.substack.com/p/nsts-bancorp-stock-analysis) (🇺🇸 NSTS US - US$61m) Nano-cap community bank with virtually zero bad loans and heavy loss reserves from its 2022 listing. The old mortgage book yields 4.2% in a 6% rate world, squeezing profits until loans roll over. **Prudent Profits** on [**Motorsport Games**](https://prudentprofits.substack.com/p/the-check-engine-light-is-off-why) (🇺🇸 MSGM US - US$20m) 1x sales post-turnaround from capital-destructive licensing to debt-free SaaS model. Unrivaled sim-racing physics engine, but nano-cap with unproven monetisation path. # Europe, Middle East & Africa **Uzo Capital** on [**Sanofi**](https://uzocapital.substack.com/p/who-am-iepisode-8) (🇫🇷 SAN PA - €96bn) TOP PICK The thesis is simple: 10-year valuation lows at 9x EV/EBIT and 12x P/E. Hidden €25bn firepower from Opella stake and Regeneron holdings behind a pharma business growing at 12%. **Value and Opportunity** on [**Innoscripta SE**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/short-updates-innoscripta-and-nomad) (🇩🇪 1INN GR - €666m) German R&D tax credit SaaS platform with 61% EBIT margins and €12m insider buying. 10/10 management score from deep research, but illiquid and down 44% from its November high. **Kubang Pasu Capital** on [**Broadpeak**](https://kubangpasucapital.substack.com/p/a-deep-value-play-on-videos-infrastructure) (🇫🇷 ALBPK PA - €29m) European video infrastructure provider at 0.7x EV/Sales versus 1.9x peers. SaaS transition via broadpeak.io gaining traction; serves 20m+ viewers. Already up 150% from the lows. **Mr Deep Value** on [**Qwamplify**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/qwamplify-analysis) (🇫🇷 ALQWA PA - €9m) TOP PICK Rare find: 1.4x EV/FCF and 2.3x break-up value for a profitable French marketing firm. Net cash, founder-led, ignored by the market at €9m. One of the cheapest stocks we've seen. # Asia-Pacific **Cristian Leon** on [**Nadex Co**](https://cristianleon1200.substack.com/p/nadex-co) (🇯🇵 7435 JP - ¥8bn) At 0.4-0.6x P/B with a 575% earnings rebound, this is an incredibly low level for a Japanese industrial with net cash and negligible analyst coverage. The kind of overlooked recovery the market tends to ignore until it can't. **Douglas Research** on [**DSC Investment**](https://douglasresearch.substack.com/p/korea-small-cap-gem-11-dsc-investment) (🇰🇷 241520 KS - US$123m) Korean venture capital firm holding 435bn won in four unicorn stakes against a 160bn won market cap. IPO catalysts for Kurly, Musinsa, and Dunamu are expected within 1-2 years. This quality is often overlooked in Korean small-caps.