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Edit: Moving this so this is first thing you see and would do so for any other DD I post where I have taken a postion. Note/Disclosure: I have taken a small position in INSW based on my research and will (hopefully) average up after earnings call. Do your own research, not financial advice. Remember you are reading from a random redditor. Also, if you know more please share it,if something is inccorect call it out, that is the point of subs like this.
I used Sentinel1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) to detect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz which is the chokepoint where 21% of the world's petroleum passes every day. Metal ship hulls are extremely bright on radar against dark water, so counting them is straightforward.
See images here : https://imgur.com/a/FwKCLVq
Ship detections across three time periods:
| Period | Ships/scene | Large vessels | Medium vessels |
|--------|------------|---------------|----------------|
| Aug 2025 | 239 | 14 | 225 |
| Nov 2025 | 477 | 50 | 427 |
| Feb 2026 | 554 | 41 | 513 |
+132% increase in detected vessels since August. Still climbing Nov to Feb (+16%).
Caveat: per-scene variance is high (different SAR passes cover different amounts of water), and these are snapshots not continuous monitoring. But the upward trend is consistent across multiple scenes and time periods.
The rate environment is a bit insane right now:
- VLCC spot rates +38% month-over-month in January
- Suezmax +106% year-over-year
- Aframax +83% year-over-year
- Source: Kpler Q1 2026 outlook, Hellenic Shipping News
Breakdown of INSW's economics at these rates:
- Fleet breakeven: under $15,000/day
- Current spot rates: ~$67,000/day
- That's a *4x margin over breakeven*
- Fleet of 76 vessels (62 owned, 14 chartered-in)
Zacks Earnings Surprise Predictor: +37%. Consensus estimate is $1.75 EPS. If the ESP is right, actual could be north of $2.40.
INSW sold 5 older tankers for ~$185M, with ~$65M in gains expected to be recognized in Q1 2026. That's a one-time boost on top of the operating performance.
#### The Iran angle
The same satellite constellation that counts ships can also detect ground-level changes at military bases. I ran InSAR Coherent Change Detection (CCD) on three key Persian Gulf bases across the last month covering the exact window when Russia-China-Iran kicked off their "Maritime Security Belt 2026" naval exercises.
CCD compare two radar scenes 12 days apart. Coherence of 1.0 = ground unchanged. Coherence near 0 = ground disturbed (vehicles moved, earth excavated, equipment staged). This is how intelligence agencies monitor base activity from space.
I processed 9 InSAR pair 3 bases × 3 time periods through ASF's HyP3 platform:
Three time windows:
Late January (before drills announced)
Early February (US deploys dual carrier strike groups Truman + Lincoln)
Mid-February (Russia docks corvette Stoikiy at Bandar Abbas Feb 19, exercises begin)
Results:
| Base | Side | Jan (Before) | Early Feb | Mid-Feb | Trend |
|------|------|-------------|-----------|---------|-------|
| Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar | US | 0.978 | 0.981 | 0.977 | -0.0% |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base, Iran | Iran | 0.531 | 0.528 | 0.537 | +1.3% |
| Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE | US | 0.948 | 0.954 | 0.951 | +0.3% |
Every single base is flat. The Russian warship literally docked at Bandar Abbas during our analysis window, and the coherence didn't budge. US bases at 0.95-0.98 coherence = completely stable, routine operations. Bandar Abbas at 0.53 is normal for a port environment (water decorrelates naturally) the key is it didn't DROP.
The exercises are at sea operation, not ground mobilization
Neither side has built new shelters, staged equipment, or altered base infrastructure
The dual carrier deployment is a naval posture not reflected in ground changes
The oil "war premium" in crude is probably overstated
Elevated tanker traffic + no actual disruption = the best setup for tanker stocks. Ships keep flowing, rates stay high, and the geopolitical noise supports a risk premium without actually breaking the trade routes.
I think the bear case is:
1. Shadow fleet oversupply Kpler warns that shadow fleet VLCCs are now sitting idle after Venezuela was removed from sanctioned trade. If these ships re-enter the commercial market, rate pressure follows.
2. Stock at 52-week high, the rate environment may already be priced in.
3. OPEC+ resuming cuts unwind in April more supply could mean more tanker demand, but could also mean lower oil prices which dampens sentiment.
4. CEO sold 2,000 shares ($128K) on Feb 17. But it's a pre-planned 10b5-1 from March 2025, she still holds 178,421 shares, and the stock is at highs. Routine, not a signal.
The breakdown of the method I am using:
- Ship detection: Sentinel-1 RTC , absolute threshold ship detection on water mask, size-classified by pixel count
- Base monitoring: Sentinel-1 SLC (ASF) HyP3 INSAR_GAMMA coherence pairs, 12-day same-satellite revisits
- Rate data: Kpler, Hellenic Shipping News, Tankers International
- Earnings data: Zacks, SEC filings