The post claims AIS data misses ~50% of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning actual oil supply is higher than models suggest. If the market is pricing oil based on an overstated supply disruption, a correction downward in price is possible when/if this reality is recognized. The perceived supply risk premium in oil prices is overstated, creating a short opportunity. The strait could suffer a real, future disruption; the report's findings could be false or already known; geopolitical escalation could drive prices higher.
The post claims AIS data misses ~50% of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning actual oil supply is higher than models suggest. If the market is pricing oil based on an overstated supply disruption, a correction downward in price is possible when/if this reality is recognized. The perceived supply risk premium in oil prices is overstated, creating a short opportunity. The strait could suffer a real, future disruption; the report's findings could be false or already known; geopolitical escalation could drive prices higher.