u/GailaMonster

The author asserts physical oil delivery costs are much higher than futures prices, war damage has created a massive production shortfall, and new disruptions to shipping (Strait) are occurring. The market is ignoring these "plain facts," suggesting a mispricing between futures (market expectation) and the physical supply reality, which should correct upward. A long position in a broad oil ETF like USO is implied as a bet that oil prices will rise to reflect the sustained supply shock the author describes. The war could de-escalate faster than expected; global demand could weaken significantly; OPEC+ could release spare capacity; the market may already have priced in these risks more efficiently than the author perceives.