u/Basat098

Author argues that leaving Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz perpetuates an oil supply risk premium, preventing a significant decline in inflation. This means the Federal Reserve has less reason to turn dovish, which removes a "suppression mechanism" on gold (i.e., less pressure from hawkish Fed policy driven by oil-induced inflation). The expected ceasefire (April 6-10) will not remove the structural risk, making gold a beneficiary of sustained monetary policy conditions. A rapid, full resolution of the Strait issue; Iran deciding not to leverage its control; the Fed pivoting for reasons unrelated to oil.