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UPS FY2026 Q1 IMPROVING

United Parcel Service, Inc. 실적 발표

Apr 28, 2026 · 08:30 ET Brian DykesCarol TomeiP.J. Guido
Buzzberg 분석

Amazon volume reduced by 500,000 pieces per day

UPS reported Q1 results ahead of expectations, with revenue $21.2B and operating margin 6.2%, but incurred ~$350M in short-term cost pressures from weather, aircraft leases, and the ground saver transition. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of ~$89.7B revenue and 9.6% margin, emphasizing that the Amazon volume reduction and network reconfiguration are on track. The tone was confident on underlying trends but cautious on the Middle East fuel impact and tariff uncertainty. U.S. domestic revenue -2.3% vs 8% volume decline, showing RPP +6.5% from mix and pricing; margin 4% including 250bps headwind from temporary costs.

Buzzberg 분석 Amazon volume reduced by 500,000 pieces per day UPS reported Q1 results ahead of expectations, with revenue $21.2B and operating margin 6.2%, but incurred ~$350M in short-term cost pressures from weather, aircraft leases, and the ground saver transition. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of ~$89.7B revenue and 9.6% margin, emphasizing that the Amazon volume reduction and network reconfiguration are on track. The tone was confident on underlying trends but cautious on the Middle East fuel impact and tariff uncertainty. U.S. domestic revenue -2.3% vs 8% volume decline, showing RPP +6.5% from mix and pricing; margin 4% including 250bps headwind from temporary costs. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기

UPS reported Q1 results ahead of expectations, with revenue $21.2B and operating margin 6.2%, but incurred ~$350M in short-term cost pressures from weather, aircraft leases, and the ground saver transition. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of ~$89.7B revenue and 9.6% margin, emphasizing that the Amazon volume reduction and network reconfiguration are on track. The tone was confident on underlying trends but cautious on the Middle East fuel impact and tariff uncertainty. U.S. domestic revenue -2.3% vs 8% volume decline, showing RPP +6.5% from mix and pricing; margin 4% including 250bps headwind from temporary costs.

  • International revenue +3.8% driven by revenue quality, despite China-U.S. lane down ~18%; margins remain pressured by trade policies but recovering.
  • Amazon volume now 8.8% of total revenue, down from >13%, with Amazon volume expected to grow in absolute terms through the year on returns.
  • Cost-out program on track: 23 buildings closed, 7,500 driver buyouts accepted (oversubscribed), and 30,000 operational position reduction target for 2026.
Revenue $21.202B -13% QoQ
EPS $1.07 -55% QoQ
Gross margin 15.84% reported
INTERNATIONAL op margin 12.1% reported

이번 분기에 달라진 점

01
Demand

Amazon volume reduced by 500,000 pieces per day

Management expressed confidence in executing the network reconfiguration and achieving the $3 billion cost-out target, while acknowledging external risks like fuel and consumer confidence. Tone was steady and focused on the inflection point in the second half.

02
Margins

Driver buyout program to reduce 7,500 positions

Reported gross margin was 15.84%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.

03
Demand

Revenue per piece up 6.5% year-over-year

Amazon volume reduced by 500,000 pieces per day. Management expressed confidence in executing the network reconfiguration and achieving the $3 billion cost-out target, while acknowledging external risks like fuel and consumer confidence. Tone was steady and focused on the…

04
Margins

First quarter cost pressures of $350 million

Reported gross margin was 15.84%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.

수요 및 자본지출

수요

수주 및 전환

Amazon volume reduced by 500,000 pieces per day. Management expressed confidence in executing the network reconfiguration and achieving the $3 billion cost-out target, while acknowledging external risks like fuel and consumer confidence. Tone was steady and focused on the inflection point in the second half.

자본지출

투자 및 생산능력

Management reaffirmed capital expenditure expectations at approximately $3 billion for 2026. No changes were discussed regarding supply constraints or data center investments.

톤 · confident

Management expressed confidence in executing the network reconfiguration and achieving the $3 billion cost-out target, while acknowledging external risks like fuel and consumer confidence. Tone was steady and focused on the inflection point in the second half.

공급망 알파

A1

The Middle East conflict forced UPS to reroute flights, adding incremental network costs despite minimal direct revenue exposure.

“We can't fly over the airspace. And because we can't fly over the airspace, that is putting cost into the network, because we want to continue to serve our customers.”
Carol Tomei
A2

USPS introduced a temporary surcharge on ground delivery, which UPS sees as setting a higher floor for economy parcel pricing, benefiting the industry.

“The PULSA system tends to set the floor for the economy product, which is actually pretty good for the whole industry if they're raising prices.”
Carol Tomei
A3

UPS filed for tariff refunds of ~$500M but will pass proceeds directly to customers, so no profit impact.

“We are making those applications started on April 20th... as soon as we get that money, we're going to remit it right back to our customer.”
Carol Tomei
A4

International trade lanes are recovering, with UPS seeing movement from red to green in China-to-U.S. and other lanes.

“Things are starting to normalize. So that means the margin will get back up.”
Carol Tomei
A5

The voluntary driver buyout was oversubscribed, with more drivers applying than UPS could accept.

“Our program was oversubscribed, so perhaps that's the basis for some of the articles. So we had more drivers applying than we could accept.”
Carol Tomei

향후 가이던스

ImprovingGuidance · revenue to $89.7B · was IN LINE last Q
향후 가이던스
지표기간범위중간값상태
CapexFY2026$3B$3BGUIDED
Free cash flowFY2026$5.5B$5.5BGUIDED
Op marginFY20269.6%9.6%GUIDED
Op marginUS_DOMESTICFY2026 Q27.5%–8.5%8%GUIDED
Op marginINTERNATIONALFY2026 Q213%–14%13.5%GUIDED
Op marginSUPPLY_CHAIN_SOLUTIONSFY2026 Q29.5%–10.5%10%GUIDED
RevenueFY2026$89.7B$89.7BGUIDED

가이던스 신뢰도

67%과거 적중률
67%
Brian Dykes

2 of 3 · 평균 편향 -2.0%

기업 영향 분석

+0.8%
발표 이후
$256.82$258.76
고객공급망 알파

USPS introduced a temporary surcharge on ground delivery, which UPS sees as setting a higher floor for economy parcel pricing, benefiting the industry. — A rising price floor for economy parcel delivery improves pricing power for all carriers, potentially lifting margins for UPS, FedEx, and Amazon's last-mile operations.

“In the first quarter, Amazon made up 8.8% of our total revenue. That's down from, gosh, it was north of 13% not very long ago.”
Carol Tomei
-15.8%
발표 이후
$384.10$323.39
공급망

USPS introduced a temporary surcharge on ground delivery, which UPS sees as setting a higher floor for economy parcel pricing, benefiting the industry. — A rising price floor for economy parcel delivery improves pricing power for all carriers, potentially lifting margins for UPS, FedEx, and Amazon's last-mile operations.

+0.8%
발표 이후
$256.82$258.76
공급망공급망 알파

UPS filed for tariff refunds of ~$500M but will pass proceeds directly to customers, so no profit impact.