Guidance
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TDG
FY2026 Q2
상향
Transdigm Group Incorporated 실적 발표
Buzzberg 분석
Guidance raised on strong Q2 performance across all markets
TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout.
Buzzberg 분석 Guidance raised on strong Q2 performance across all markets TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기
TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout.
- Full-year FY2026 guidance was raised: revenue midpoint to $10.36B (+17% y/y), EBITDA to $5.42B, and Adjusted EPS to $39.52.
- Free cash flow guidance raised to ~$2.5B, up $100M from prior guidance.
- Management remains cautious on the commercial aftermarket outlook due to the Middle East conflict, noting a potential lagged impact on global RPKs and takeoff/landing cycles, though no significant impact to date.
매출$2.544B+11% 전분기 대비
주당순이익(EPS)$9.85+20% 전분기 대비
매출총이익률59.39%보고값
영업이익률46.31%보고값
근거 있는 핵심 내용 6개
지금 중요한 점
이번 발표에서 가장 의미 있는 변화를 정리했습니다.
Demand
Commercial aftermarket growth rebounded with bookings at all-time high
Macro
No significant impact yet from Middle East conflict on aftermarket
핵심 내용 3개 더 보기
M&A
M&A firepower remains over $10 billion after recent deals
Margins
Expect base business margins to improve 1-1.5 points annually
Supply Chain
Supply chain has largely normalized with high on-time performance
보고 기간
보고 실적
| 지표 | 보고값 | 변화 |
|---|---|---|
| 매출 | $2.544B | +11% 전분기 대비 |
| 주당순이익(EPS) | $9.85 | +20% 전분기 대비 |
| 매출총이익률 | 59.39% | 보고값 |
| 영업이익률 | 46.31% | 보고값 |
| 잉여현금흐름 | $0.064B | 보고값 |
| 자본지출 | $0.071B | 보고값 |
향후 전망
향후 가이던스
| 지표 | 기간 | 범위 | 중간값 | 상태 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 주당순이익(EPS) | FY2026 | $39.52 | $39.52 | 상향 |
| 잉여현금흐름 | FY2026 | $2.5B | $2.5B | 상향 |
| 매출 | FY2026 | $10.3B–$10.42B | $10.36B | 상향 |
| 매출COMMERCIAL_AFTERMARKET | FY2026 | 7%–12% | 9.5% | 상향 |
| 매출COMMERCIAL_OEM | FY2026 | 10%–15% | 12.5% | 상향 |
| 매출DEFENSE | FY2026 | 7%–10% | 8.5% | 상향 |
AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석
경영진 분석
Cautiously Optimisti
Management expressed satisfaction with strong results and raised guidance, but repeatedly highlighted uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on the commercial aftermarket.
아래에 언급된 기업 2개 모두 표시
기업발표 이후 수익률
공급업체
공급업체
Mike Lisman
TDG sees Boeing and Airbus ramping production, with demand high but recovery bumpy; TDG is encouraged by consistent quarterly improvements in OEM bookings.
근거
“Boeing and Airbus are continuing to ramp production rates. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high, with backlogs increasing. The OEM production rate recovery to date has been bumpy.”
공급업체
Mike Lisman
TDG sees Airbus ramping production alongside Boeing, supporting TDG's commercial OEM growth.
근거
“Boeing and Airbus are continuing to ramp production rates. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high, with backlogs increasing.”
외부 신호
공급망 알파 · 3발표 이후 수익률
TDG says roughly 75% of its commercial aftermarket shipments go direct to airlines/OEMs, with only ~25% through distribution, which reduces channel inventory distortion risk.
근거
“roughly 75% of our camp shipments go direct to an airline or through an OEM to the airline. Twenty-five percent roughly is what goes through our distribution partners.”
Management noted that on a same-store basis, margins should improve by 100-150bps annually as the dilution from recent acquisitions fades.
근거
“We expect sequential improvement on a same store sales basis, apples to apples business mix of call it one percentage point to maybe a percentage point and a half of margin improvement year over year.”
Despite the Middle East conflict, TDG has not seen a significant change in commercial aftermarket ordering, including from Middle Eastern airlines, though April activity has dipped.
근거
“To date, we have not seen a significant change in commercial aftermarket ordering activity relative to levels prior to the start of the conflict. including from the Middle Eastern Airlines, most directly impact.”
방법론 및 범위
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