2026 production trough at 5.3Moz, growth resumes in 2027
Newmont reported strong FY2025 results meeting guidance, with record free cash flow and a new capital allocation framework emphasizing dividends and buybacks. The company provided 2026 guidance with production of 5.3M oz (trough year) and AISC of $1,680/oz, highlighting cost savings. Key cross-company signal: a notice of default was issued to Barrick Gold over Nevada Gold Mines performance, suggesting escalating tensions in the JV. FY2025 gold production: 5.7M oz; free cash flow: $7.3B; returned $3.4B to shareholders.
Buzzberg 분석2026 production trough at 5.3Moz, growth resumes in 2027Newmont reported strong FY2025 results meeting guidance, with record free cash flow and a new capital allocation framework emphasizing dividends and buybacks. The company provided 2026 guidance with production of 5.3M oz (trough year) and AISC of $1,680/oz, highlighting cost savings. Key cross-company signal: a notice of default was issued to Barrick Gold over Nevada Gold Mines performance, suggesting escalating tensions in the JV. FY2025 gold production: 5.7M oz; free cash flow: $7.3B; returned $3.4B to shareholders.전체 분석 보기분석 접기
Newmont reported strong FY2025 results meeting guidance, with record free cash flow and a new capital allocation framework emphasizing dividends and buybacks. The company provided 2026 guidance with production of 5.3M oz (trough year) and AISC of $1,680/oz, highlighting cost savings. Key cross-company signal: a notice of default was issued to Barrick Gold over Nevada Gold Mines performance, suggesting escalating tensions in the JV. FY2025 gold production: 5.7M oz; free cash flow: $7.3B; returned $3.4B to shareholders.
2026 guidance: production 5.3M oz (±5%), AISC $1,680/oz (by-product), sustaining capex ~$1.95B, development capex ~$1.4B.
Enhanced capital allocation: fixed dividend of $1.1B/year, net cash target $1B ±$2B, excess cash to buybacks.
Notice of default issued to Barrick (GOLD) over Nevada Gold Mines operational performance; lower NGM production reflected in guidance.
Revenue$6.571B
+22% QoQ
EPS$2.52
+47% QoQ
Gross margin58.76%
reported
Free cash flow$5.848B
reported
이번 분기에 달라진 점
01
Guidance
2026 production trough at 5.3Moz, growth resumes in 2027
Guidance tone
02
Capital Allocation
New capital framework prioritizes dividend and buybacks
FY2025 gold production: 5.7M oz; free cash flow: $7.3B; returned $3.4B to shareholders.
2026 guidance: production 5.3M oz (±5%), AISC $1,680/oz (by-product), sustaining capex ~$1.95B, development capex ~$1.4B.
04
JV
NGM default notice issued against partner
Enhanced capital allocation: fixed dividend of $1.1B/year, net cash target $1B ±$2B, excess cash to buybacks.
수요 및 자본지출
수요
수주 및 전환
Management expressed confidence in execution, cost discipline, and a trough-year 2026 with clear growth drivers from 2027, supporting a positive stance on Newmont's outlook.
자본지출
투자 및 생산능력
Management guided 2026 sustaining capital of about $1.95 billion (including a $150 million shift from 2025) and development capital of about $1.4 billion, with 55% weighted to the second half. Spending supports major projects like Tanami Expansion 2, Cadia Panel Caves, Lihir near-shore barrier, and Red Chris feasibility.
톤 · Confident
Management emphasized disciplined execution, achieved guidance, and introduced a shareholder-friendly capital framework, expressing confidence in long-term growth and value creation.
공급망 알파
A1
Newmont issued a notice of default to its Barrick JV partner over Nevada Gold Mines operational performance, which may force restructuring or governance changes.
Newmont's 2026 AISC of $1,680/oz is $100/oz lower than it would have been without the cost-savings initiatives launched in 2025, demonstrating structural cost improvements.
“all in sustaining costs are expected to be more than $100 per ounce lower than they would have been without the cost savings initiatives launched last year”
Newmont identified a highly capital-efficient plan at Yanacocha that leverages existing infrastructure to mine through 2026/early 2027, adding low-cost ounces.
“we have identified a highly capital efficient plan which leverages current infrastructure to continue mining operations through 2026 and into early 2027”
Newmont issued a notice of default to its Barrick JV partner over Nevada Gold Mines operational performance, which may force restructuring or governance changes. — Resolving the default could alter production sharing or even lead to a buyout, materially impacting Barrick's portfolio and Newmont's exposure.
… are operating in a rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, our confidence comes from clear understanding of our portfolio, a disciplined, responsible approach to investment focused on delivering results and long-term value for our shareholders. Just before I turn to Q&A, I want to briefly address the recent announcement by our Nevada Goldmines joint venture partner. At this time, the only information available to us is what has been publicly disclosed and as stated in our recent press release. Our primary focus remains on working with a managing partner to improve performance of these assets and generate long-term value for Newmont shareholders. As disclosed in our 10-K, we have issued a notice of default to our joint venture partner related to operational performance and management of Nevada gold mines. We do not have any additional information to share at this time and confidentiality provisions in the joint venture agreement prevent further comment on the notice of default. With that said, we look forward to addressing any questions about new month operational and financial performance. I will now hand it back to the operator to open the call for questions.
Newmont issued a notice of default to its Barrick JV partner over Nevada Gold Mines operational performance, which may force restructuring or governance changes.
… are operating in a rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, our confidence comes from clear understanding of our portfolio, a disciplined, responsible approach to investment focused on delivering results and long-term value for our shareholders. Just before I turn to Q&A, I want to briefly address the recent announcement by our Nevada Goldmines joint venture partner. At this time, the only information available to us is what has been publicly disclosed and as stated in our recent press release. Our primary focus remains on working with a managing partner to improve performance of these assets and generate long-term value for Newmont shareholders. As disclosed in our 10-K, we have issued a notice of default to our joint venture partner related to operational performance and management of Nevada gold mines. We do not have any additional information to share at this time and confidentiality provisions in the joint venture agreement prevent further comment on the notice of default. With that said, we look forward to addressing any questions about new month operational and financial performance. I will now hand it back to the operator to open the call for questions.
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