2026 EPS growth now expected to be balanced between halves
Altria started 2026 with strong adjusted EPS growth of 7.3% and reaffirmed its full-year EPS range of $5.56-$5.72, citing moderating cigarette volume declines as illicit disposable e-vapor demand slows. Management highlighted OnPlus's national expansion and Marlboro's premium share gains, while cautioning on consumer macro pressures from gas prices and elevated everyday costs. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 7.3% in Q1 2026; full-year EPS guidance maintained at $5.56-$5.72.
Buzzberg 분석2026 EPS growth now expected to be balanced between halvesAltria started 2026 with strong adjusted EPS growth of 7.3% and reaffirmed its full-year EPS range of $5.56-$5.72, citing moderating cigarette volume declines as illicit disposable e-vapor demand slows. Management highlighted OnPlus's national expansion and Marlboro's premium share gains, while cautioning on consumer macro pressures from gas prices and elevated everyday costs. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 7.3% in Q1 2026; full-year EPS guidance maintained at $5.56-$5.72.전체 분석 보기분석 접기
Altria started 2026 with strong adjusted EPS growth of 7.3% and reaffirmed its full-year EPS range of $5.56-$5.72, citing moderating cigarette volume declines as illicit disposable e-vapor demand slows. Management highlighted OnPlus's national expansion and Marlboro's premium share gains, while cautioning on consumer macro pressures from gas prices and elevated everyday costs. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 7.3% in Q1 2026; full-year EPS guidance maintained at $5.56-$5.72.
U.S. cigarette industry volume decline moderated to ~5%, helped by reduced cross-category movement into illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products.
OnPlus rolled out to roughly 100,000 stores, representing 85% of nicotine pouch category volume; new trade program secured premium shelf positioning.
Marlboro premium segment share rose to 59.5%, while BASIC captured the discount segment with 2.4 points of retail share growth.
Revenue$5.428B
+7% QoQ
EPS$1.32
+2% QoQ
Gross margin64.59%
reported
Op margin54.46%
reported
이번 분기에 달라진 점
01
Guidance
2026 EPS growth now expected to be balanced between halves
Guidance tone
02
Innovation
OnPlus expanded nationwide to about 100,000 stores
Adjusted diluted EPS grew 7.3% in Q1 2026; full-year EPS guidance maintained at $5.56-$5.72.
03
Volume Trends
Smokable volume declines are moderating
U.S. cigarette industry volume decline moderated to ~5%, helped by reduced cross-category movement into illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products.
04
Market Share
Marlboro holds premium strength while BASIC captures discount trade-down
OnPlus rolled out to roughly 100,000 stores, representing 85% of nicotine pouch category volume; new trade program secured premium shelf positioning.
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수주 및 전환
Altria delivered a strong Q1 and shifted expected 2026 EPS growth to be more balanced between first and second half, but kept full-year guidance unchanged given macro uncertainty, gas prices, and consumer trade-down pressure.
톤 · Measured
Management expressed confidence in the strong start and portfolio execution, but remained cautious by reaffirming guidance amid macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer pressure.
공급망 알파
A1
Moderation in illicit flavored disposable e-vapor demand is the key driver of improving U.S. cigarette industry volume trends.
Altria's equity stake in ABI generated 9.6% higher adjusted earnings in Q1, a modestly positive read on ABI's earnings trajectory; management reiterated it remains purely a financial investment.
“Turning to our investment in ABI, We recorded $160 million in adjusted equity earnings in the quarter, up 9.6% versus the prior year.”
… by approximately 8.5%. Year-over-year trade inventory comparisons were impacted primarily by on plus pipeline volume in the first quarter and elevated competitor volume in 2025. Oral tobacco product segment retail share declined by 5.5 percentage points. Overall, we remain encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco businesses as Copenhagen continued to lead in MST and Helix expanded its portfolio in the growing nicotine pouch category. Turning to our investment in ABI, We recorded $160 million in adjusted equity earnings in the quarter, up 9.6% versus the prior year. We continue to view our ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. We remain committed to returning significant value to shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet. In the first quarter, we paid approximately $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased 4.5 million shares for $280 million. At the end of the quarter, we had $720 million remaining under our current share repurchase program which expires at the end of the year. In addition, our balance sheet remains strong. We retired just over $1 billion of debt that …
Moderation in illicit flavored disposable e-vapor demand is the key driver of improving U.S. cigarette industry volume trends. — If enforcement/supply disruption keeps shrinking illicit disposable volume, combustible cigarette volumes and pricing power improve for all licensed U.S. cigarette manufacturers, not just Altria.
… in our smokable volumes continue to moderate. In the first quarter, reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 2.4%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, we estimate domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 4%. At the industry level, when adjusted for trade inventory movements, we estimate domestic cigarette industry volumes declined by 5%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential year-over-year moderation. This trend was driven primarily by reduced cross-category movement between cigarettes and illicit flavored disposable evapor products. For consumers, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Elevated everyday expenses and higher gas prices later in the quarter continued to weigh on discretionary income among more price sensitive adult smokers. Although higher than normal tax refunds provided some short term relief, These pressures were the primary driver of year-over-year discount segment retail share growth of 2.4 share points. This trade-down dynamic impacted Marlboro's overall retail share, which declined 1.4 share points versus the year-ago period and 0.1 share points sequentially. However, in the highly profitable premium …
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