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LITE FY2026 Q3 IMPROVING

Lumentum Holdings Inc. 실적 발표

May 05, 2026 · 17:00 ET Kathy TaMichael HarlstonWajid Ali
Buzzberg 분석

Supply-demand imbalance on EMLs exceeds 30%

Lumentum delivered a spectacular quarter with record revenue and massive margin expansion, fueled by insatiable demand for its laser components used in AI data centers. The company is supply-constrained across nearly every product line and is exercising significant pricing power. Management raised the bar again with record Q4 guidance and reiterated confidence in its long-term $2B quarterly revenue goal. FQ3 FY26 revenue hit a record $808M, up 90% YoY, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding a staggering 1,270 bps YoY to 47.9%.

Buzzberg 분석 Supply-demand imbalance on EMLs exceeds 30% Lumentum delivered a spectacular quarter with record revenue and massive margin expansion, fueled by insatiable demand for its laser components used in AI data centers. The company is supply-constrained across nearly every product line and is exercising significant pricing power. Management raised the bar again with record Q4 guidance and reiterated confidence in its long-term $2B quarterly revenue goal. FQ3 FY26 revenue hit a record $808M, up 90% YoY, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding a staggering 1,270 bps YoY to 47.9%. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기

Lumentum delivered a spectacular quarter with record revenue and massive margin expansion, fueled by insatiable demand for its laser components used in AI data centers. The company is supply-constrained across nearly every product line and is exercising significant pricing power. Management raised the bar again with record Q4 guidance and reiterated confidence in its long-term $2B quarterly revenue goal. FQ3 FY26 revenue hit a record $808M, up 90% YoY, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding a staggering 1,270 bps YoY to 47.9%.

  • Supply-demand imbalance for EMLs is over 30%, and Lumentum is actively making allocation choices as it struggles to meet demand.
  • The company is aggressively ramping capacity for pump lasers and narrow-linewidth lasers for scale-across networks, which are becoming a major margin driver.
  • Management provided record FQ4 guidance for revenue ($960M-$1.01B) and operating margin (35%-36%).
Revenue $0.8084B +21% QoQ
EPS $2.37 +42% QoQ
Gross margin 44.16% reported
Op margin 21.72% reported

이번 분기에 달라진 점

01
Supply

Supply-demand imbalance on EMLs exceeds 30%

Lumentum delivered a spectacular quarter with record revenue and massive margin expansion, fueled by insatiable demand for its laser components used in AI data centers. The company is supply-constrained across nearly every product line and is exercising significant pricing…

02
AI

CPO opportunity could exceed $5 billion incremental revenue

Management highlighted AI-driven demand across multiple product lines, including EMLs, CW lasers, CPO, OCS, and scale-across components, with supply constraints lagging demand and new customer engagements expanding. They are investing in capacity and vertical integration to…

03
Capex

New Greensboro fab will contribute from 2028

Management is significantly increasing capex to expand manufacturing capacity, particularly for lasers and OCS, with a focus on bringing new fabs online (Greensboro, North Carolina) and ramping existing facilities to alleviate supply constraints.

04
Supply

OCS ramp on track but constrained

The company is aggressively ramping capacity for pump lasers and narrow-linewidth lasers for scale-across networks, which are becoming a major margin driver.

AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석

AI

플랫폼 및 수익화

Management highlighted AI-driven demand across multiple product lines, including EMLs, CW lasers, CPO, OCS, and scale-across components, with supply constraints lagging demand and new customer engagements expanding. They are investing in capacity and vertical integration to address this demand.

수요

수주 및 전환

Management is highly bullish, guiding to another record quarter and reiterating its long-term $2B quarterly revenue target, driven by broad-based demand across all growth vectors.

자본지출

투자 및 생산능력

Management is significantly increasing capex to expand manufacturing capacity, particularly for lasers and OCS, with a focus on bringing new fabs online (Greensboro, North Carolina) and ramping existing facilities to alleviate supply constraints.

톤 · Upbeat

Management's tone is confident and positive, highlighted by record revenue, strong margin expansion, and repeated references to demand outpacing supply, with a forward-looking emphasis on growth opportunities.

공급망 알파

A1

Even with massive internal expansion, Lumentum is undershipping demand for pump lasers, narrow linewidth lasers, and EMLs by more than 30% and having to allocate supply to customers.

“The supply demand imbalance is probably even higher than we reported in our last call, somewhere greater than 30%.”
Michael Harlston
A2

Lumentum is shifting to contract manufacturing to improve margins, a strategic change from its historical insourcing approach.

“As we have started to shift, and we're early in those innings, back to a contract manufacturing base, we would actually expect to see improvement in our margins.”
Michael Harlston
A3

Lumentum is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance in its own transceiver business that is 'appreciable' and likely over 30%, limiting its ability to meet customer demand despite a strong ramp in 1.6T shipments.

“The supply-demand imbalance on our own transceivers was somewhere in that zip code, but it was definitely appreciable, although I don't know that we've calculated that.”
Michael Harlston

향후 가이던스

ImprovingGuidance · revenue to $985M · was IN LINE last Q
향후 가이던스
지표기간범위중간값상태
EPSFY2026 Q4$2.85–$3.05$2.95GUIDED
Op marginFY2026 Q435%–36%35.5%GUIDED
RevenueFY2026 Q4$960M–$1.01B$985MGUIDED

가이던스 신뢰도

2 / 3달성 또는 상회
가이던스 신뢰도
제시 시점지표목표 기간가이던스실제결과
FY2026 Q2EPSFY2026 Q3$2.15–$2.35$2.37Met / beat
FY2026 Q2Op marginFY2026 Q330%–31%21.72%Missed
FY2026 Q2RevenueFY2026 Q3$0.78B–$0.83B$0.8084BMet / beat

기업 영향 분석

+9.5%
발표 이후
$196.70$215.38
투자 대상

Nvidia made a direct equity investment in Lumentum, a strong endorsement of Lumentum's technology and a source of capital to fund expansion.

“During the third quarter, our cash and short-term investments increased by 2.02 billion to 3.17 billion dollars with the increase primarily driven by nvidia's direct investment in momentum”
Wajid Ali
-12.1%
발표 이후
$329.08$289.26
발표 이후
공급망공급망 알파

Even with massive internal expansion, Lumentum is undershipping demand for pump lasers, narrow linewidth lasers, and EMLs by more than 30% and having to allocate supply to customers. — Persistent industry-wide laser and component shortages signal pricing power and potential revenue upside for Lumentum's laser competitors and indicate the AI supply chain remains heavily constrained.

+3.4%
발표 이후
$107.02$110.62
공급망공급망 알파

Lumentum is shifting to contract manufacturing to improve margins, a strategic change from its historical insourcing approach. — Outsourcing production to EMS providers like Flex could signal a new source of demand for those companies and a margin tailwind for Lumentum.

+38.0%
발표 이후
$171.11$236.10
공급망공급망 알파

Lumentum is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance in its own transceiver business that is 'appreciable' and likely over 30%, limiting its ability to meet customer demand despite a strong ramp in 1.6T shipments. — The significant shortage of transceivers, a critical AI infrastructure component, indicates the AI buildout demand is far outpacing supply, benefiting the broader ecosystem but keeping a lid on Lumentum's top-line growth.