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FY2025 Q4
예상 부합
Intel Corporation 실적 발표
Buzzberg 분석
18A yield improving 7-8% monthly, but not yet industry-leading
Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance.
Buzzberg 분석 18A yield improving 7-8% monthly, but not yet industry-leading Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기
Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance.
- Q1 FY2026 guidance: revenue $11.7-12.7B, GM ~34.5%, break-even EPS, reflecting worst supply tightness.
- Supply constraints are industry-wide for DRAM/NAND/substrates, limiting Intel's ability to fulfill PC and server demand.
- Intel achieved 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A; tool spending (not fab space) is ramping to boost capacity.
매출$13.674B+0% 전분기 대비
주당순이익(EPS)$0.15-35% 전분기 대비
매출총이익률36.15%보고값
영업이익률4.02%보고값
근거 있는 핵심 내용 6개
지금 중요한 점
이번 발표에서 가장 의미 있는 변화를 정리했습니다.
Foundry
External foundry 14A customer decisions expected H2 2026
Foundry
Advanced packaging revenue could exceed $1B per customer
핵심 내용 3개 더 보기
Supply
Supply constraints to ease from Q2 2026, still below demand
Demand
Strong server demand, but Q1 revenue sub-seasonal due to supply
Capex
CapEx flat to down slightly, but tool spending up
보고 기간
보고 실적
| 지표 | 보고값 | 변화 |
|---|---|---|
| 매출 | $13.674B | +0% 전분기 대비 |
| 주당순이익(EPS) | $0.15 | -35% 전분기 대비 |
| 매출총이익률 | 36.15% | 보고값 |
| 영업이익률 | 4.02% | 보고값 |
| 잉여현금흐름 | $0.8B | 보고값 |
| 자본지출 | $3.488B | 보고값 |
향후 전망
향후 가이던스
| 지표 | 기간 | 범위 | 중간값 | 상태 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 주당순이익(EPS) | FY2026 Q1 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 제시 |
| 매출총이익률 | FY2026 Q1 | 34.5% | 34.5% | 제시 |
| 영업이익률 | FY2026 | $16B | $16B | 제시 |
| 매출 | FY2026 Q1 | $11.7B–$12.7B | $12.2B | 제시 |
AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석
경영진 분석
Measuredly Optimisti
Management expressed confidence in strategic direction and demand tailwinds, while acknowledging near-term supply constraints and execution challenges.
경영진의 AI 분석
Management emphasized AI-driven demand across all compute segments, positioning Intel's heterogeneous silicon (CPU, GPU, ASIC, etc.) and advanced packaging as key differentiators. They see AI expanding the role of CPUs in data centers and client devices, with hybrid AI driving client refresh. They are focusing on emerging AI workloads like reasoning and agentic AI for future accelerators.
투자 및 생산능력
Capex for 2026 is planned flat to down slightly versus prior year, with a shift from space to tool spending to address supply constraints. They are aggressively adding tools for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A, but are holding back 14A capacity investment until customer commitments are secured, expected in late 2026 or 2027. The goal is to improve supply through yield and throughput gains first.
아래에 언급된 기업 12개 모두 표시
기업발표 이후 수익률
파트너
파트너
Lipu Tan
Intel is co-developing a custom Xeon with NVIDIA's NVLink, indicating deepening collaboration in AI infrastructure despite competition.
근거
“We also continue to work closely with NVIDIA to build a custom Xeon fully integrated with their NVLink technology to bring best-in-class x86 performance to AI host nodes.”
파트너
David Zinsner
SoftBank's investment adds to Intel's cash war chest, likely with advisory ties but no operational control.
근거
“investments by the SoftBank Group and NVIDIA.”
투자 대상
투자 대상
David Zinsner
Intel reduced its stake in Mobileye to raise cash, signaling ongoing deconsolidation of non-core assets.
근거
“We exit 2025 with $37.4 billion of cash and short-term investments bolstered by further monetization of Mobileye...”
공급망
ALTR
공급망
David Zinsner
Intel views Altera's spin-off positively, but Altera's success could eventually compete with Intel's programmable logic efforts.
근거
“I'm pleased with the early momentum at Altera as an independent company with a new leadership team.”
공급망
Lipu Tan
Lipu Tan's background at Cadence informs Intel's ASIC strategy, but no direct current business relationship mentioned.
근거
“including leveraging my own experience at cadent design supporting and growing this market”
공급망
David Zinsner
Industry-wide DRAM/NAND and substrate shortages are pressuring client PC component availability and could limit Intel's revenue despite strong CPU demand. — Intel CPUs may sit idle if customers cannot source memory, creating a secondary bottleneck that caps Intel's upside.
근거
“industry-wide supply for key components like DRAM, NAND, and substrates has come under increasing pressure due to intense demand to support the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.”
공급망
Lipu Tan
Intel is achieving 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A and is aggressively adding tools, not cleanroom space, to boost supply without major CapEx. — Yield-driven supply addition has high ROI and could quickly relieve constraints, benefiting equipment suppliers.
근거
“on the year improvement rate we see, you know, 7%, 8% year improvement per month.”
공급망
Intel's custom ASIC business reached a $1B annual run rate and is targeting a $100B TAM, driven by AI networking and cloud workloads. — Intel is emerging as a serious ASIC competitor to Broadcom and Marvell, especially when combined with internal Xeon IP and packaging.
David Zinsner
공급망
Intel is prioritizing internal wafer supply to data center over client, and using more externally sourced wafers for client, implying market share shifts in PC CPUs. — Intel's PC market share may temporarily erode as it allocates scarce internal capacity to higher-margin servers, benefiting AMD and TSMC-linked client chips.
David Zinsner외부 신호
공급망 알파 · 6발표 이후 수익률
Intel's inventory of finished goods dropped to ~40% of peak, causing hand-to-mouth supply management in Q1.
Industry-wide DRAM/NAND and substrate shortages are pressuring client PC component availability and could limit Intel's revenue despite strong CPU demand.
Intel is achieving 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A and is aggressively adding tools, not cleanroom space, to boost supply without major CapEx.
Customers are prepaying for Intel's advanced packaging (EMIB-T) due to severe capacity shortages, signaling high pricing power and commitment.
Intel's custom ASIC business reached a $1B annual run rate and is targeting a $100B TAM, driven by AI networking and cloud workloads.
Intel is prioritizing internal wafer supply to data center over client, and using more externally sourced wafers for client, implying market share shifts in PC CPUs.
방법론 및 범위
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