Hilton reported a solid Q4 2025 with RevPAR up 0.5%, driven by international strength, and provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. Management highlighted early signs of a US economic recovery, improving business transient trends, and a robust development pipeline, while announcing new brand launches in the lifestyle segment. Q4 2025 RevPAR up 0.5% y/y, with international markets (EMEA +5.3%, MEA +15.9%) outperforming a US decline of 1.6%.
Hilton reported a solid Q4 2025 with RevPAR up 0.5%, driven by international strength, and provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. Management highlighted early signs of a US economic recovery, improving business transient trends, and a robust development pipeline, while announcing new brand launches in the lifestyle segment. Q4 2025 RevPAR up 0.5% y/y, with international markets (EMEA +5.3%, MEA +15.9%) outperforming a US decline of 1.6%.
Hilton reported a solid Q4 2025 with RevPAR up 0.5%, driven by international strength, and provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. Management highlighted early signs of a US economic recovery, improving business transient trends, and a robust development pipeline…
Chris Nassetta expressed increased optimism, citing improving macro data, better demand trends, and a belief that 2026 will be stronger than 2025.
Management discussed AI extensively, highlighting a modern tech stack as a competitive advantage, engagement with major AI players (OpenAI, Google), development of AI-enabled search and booking experiences, and a view that AI will lower distribution costs and enhance customer…
2026 guidance calls for RevPAR growth of 1-2%, adjusted EBITDA of $4.0-4.04B, and 6-7% net unit growth.
Management discussed AI extensively, highlighting a modern tech stack as a competitive advantage, engagement with major AI players (OpenAI, Google), development of AI-enabled search and booking experiences, and a view that AI will lower distribution costs and enhance customer experience. They are exploring 40+ use cases across efficiency, distribution, and customer experience.
Group bookings continue strong into 2026, leading demand segments.. Chris Nassetta expressed increased optimism, citing improving macro data, better demand trends, and a belief that 2026 will be stronger than 2025.
Management did not directly discuss capex; however, they noted key money is flat in guidance, and they are disciplined in its use, focusing it on upper upscale and above deals. They also highlighted increasing construction starts in the U.S. and globally, signaling healthy developer appetite.
Chris Nassetta expressed increased optimism, citing improving macro data, better demand trends, and a belief that 2026 will be stronger than 2025.
“We're seeing a meaningful change from what we were seeing earlier in the fourth quarter and certainly in the third quarter. Whether that's sustainable or not, I don't know.”
“New development construction starts in the U.S. were up over 25% in 2025. a trend that we expect to accelerate even further into 2026.”
“I think this is a pathway to lower distribution costs broadly for our owner community if we're smart... if we don't want to share it, nobody can get it.”
| 지표 | 기간 | 범위 | 중간값 | 상태 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $8.65–$8.77 | $8.71 | GUIDED |
| EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $1.91–$1.97 | $1.94 | GUIDED |
| RevenueREVPAR | FY2026 Q1 | 1%–2% | 1.5% | GUIDED |
| RevenueREVPAR | FY2026 | 1%–2% | 1.5% | GUIDED |
| RevenueEBITDA | FY2026 | $4B–$4.04B | $4.02B | GUIDED |
| Units | FY2026 | 6%–7% | 6.5% | GUIDED |
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Management reaffirms the strength of its co-brand credit card partnership with Amex, highlighting continued above-algorithm growth.
“We have a fantastic credit card program that continues to be among the best and most popular cards in our industry and with Amex.”
Hi there. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to touch on the non-REVPAR fee side of things. You know, I think back at your investor day a few years ago now, you'd called out the ALGO in the kind of low double-digit range back then. You mentioned this morning it was kind of an outperformer last year. Anything you'd share on how this evolves and the outlook for that over time, I guess, especially on the credit card side of things?
Yeah, Lizzie, I think we probably will stick to generally, you referenced the investor day, generally what we said. And what we said has sort of played out that we think that our non-REF part-driven fees will continue to grow at above algorithm. Some of that's a credit card. Some of that's timeshare. Some of that's our purchasing business. We've got some other ideas that we're working on in terms of commercializing our customer base to continue to grow the business. I think we've done a pretty good job of that over time. And then our credit card program, I'm sure Chris may want to add something to this. Look, we have a fantastic credit card program that continues to be among the best and most popular cards in our industry and with Amex. Drives a lot of customer engagement, drives great economics both for our system and and for us, and beyond that, we tend to not talk all that much about it in terms of some of the details are competitively sensitive, but we think that that will continue to grow above algorithm as well for a long time.
Hilton is collaborating with major AI providers like OpenAI and Google to develop AI-powered distribution and customer experience tools.
“We're working with Many of all the big players out there, the OpenAI, Google, we're working with all of them.”
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. You touched on this a bit, but maybe in a different lens. The AI and technology front, I mean, this continues to obviously evolve at a very rapid pace. So I guess the question is, how close are you to maybe announcing some partnerships there if that's on the horizon? And then how do you think about the opportunity set here, both from the OpEx side internally and then externally from the revenue side in terms of distribution?
… of things. The first is just like creating efficiencies in the system. Some of that could benefit G&A. By the way, you've seen some of the benefits. I mean, our G&A is lower than it was six, seven years ago, and that It's not all AI, but part of it is, you know, process reimagination, making ourselves better, applying the use of technology in ways. We've been doing that forever, and AI is just another amazing tool that allows us to speed some of that up. And so we're looking at tons of things, like, you know, hotel openings is one that our teams are deep in the middle of. Like, you know, so many people touch, you know, the process of opening a hotel, dozens and dozens, like, creating massive efficiency around connecting all those dots. And we have dozens of other use cases in that area. And then there's the whole distribution space, which is sort of the crux of your question. We tend not to make big announcements until we've done things. And so we're working with Many of all the big players out there, the OpenAI, Google, we're working with all of them. We're part, not the big ones that are big in the travel or either are or are trying to be. We're involved in all of their tests, and we're developing the connectivity with those platforms, and I'm super optimistic about that. We're also, because we have a very modern tech stack, doing some really interesting things in sort of natural search connected to booking and the experience within our own platforms, some of which you'll start to see, you know, probably at some point in the second quarter, which I think are really cool. My own view on the distribution space is quite, I said, probably said this last time, is simple. Like, we believe we have the best products, deliver the best service with the best culture, you know, our loyalty that continues to be super relevant, and that customers want what we do because we're good at it. We do a good job. Like if you look at the hard data, market share, you know, review site index, we perform really well. Customers want to find us. We believe that what's going on with AI is spectacular. There's always risk, by the way. You know, like I don't have my head in the sand, nor does anybody here. But I think in our space, which is very hard to disintermediate because it's a physical business, the opportunities are far greater, you know, both in distribution and otherwise …
Management notes a 'meaningful change' in business transient trends at the start of 2026, with a pickup in mid-scale and upper mid-scale demand, suggesting the US consumer is strengthening. — This can signal a broad-based pickup in US domestic travel demand, benefiting other major hotel operators.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Chris, I would love to start with you both in the prepared remarks and overall sound a bit more optimistic. So we always value your kind of overview of where we kind of sit with the broader economy and the lodging industry. If you could just kind of give us your kind of latest thinking there and maybe specifically – a few thoughts around the business transient environment, particularly large versus small corporate. I think on the small or medium size, we've seen some weakness. Wondering what you think about that as we kind of turn the page into 2026.
… to it, the bulk of our system, I think everybody's system, is more concentrated because the middle class is the biggest percentage of the population in the mid-market. And so that's what I thought last quarter. That's what I think now. The only difference, I would say, is that we're starting to see it. Now, I'm going to be really honest, and it's obvious. So you know, I should be honest, which is, you know, the data sets that I'm looking at are not, you know, months and months, quarters and quarters. What I'm really looking at, as I said, a little bit, you know, when we talked about December is the end of the year, you know, got a lot better than we thought. And even with the storms, the beginning of this year has been better. And it's been better in the ways we'd want to see it. So what does that mean? That means mid-scale, upper mid-scale, You know, it means midweek. It means business transient to your question, Sean. We're seeing a meaningful change from what we were seeing earlier in the fourth quarter and certainly in the third quarter. Whether that's sustainable or not, I don't know. But it feels to me if all of the other macro conditions change, that I was talking about, if those continue to develop, it sort of has to be the beginning of a trend. By the way, the other thing, it's not macro, it's micro, but I said micro is we have a bunch of benefits this year, which you guys are aware of. Number one, the comps, as I said, are easier because, I mean, you could have other things happen, but Liberation Day was a pretty big deal and the biggest government shutdown in American history was a pretty big deal. You hopefully don't repeat those at that, you know, at that scale. And we have a bunch of unique events, which you're well aware of with the World Cup, America's 250, that are really stimulative to travel at the same time, all these other things are going on. And so, you know, I, you know, yes, I have, you know, we're at the beginning, I think of a trend, we have to get more data, you know, and like, see it really sort of continue. But I like what I'm seeing right now. And as a result, you saw in our guidance that we think that 26, as I had thought last quarter, will be a lot better than 25. And I think we have very solid underpinnings to back that up. And in the first quarter, by the way, in the guidance we're giving, super solid. At this point, …
New development construction starts in the US were up over 25% in 2025, signaling a strong recovery in hotel development, which will drive future supply and demand for construction and FF&E. — This is a leading indicator for construction activity and could signal increased demand for HVAC, controls, and other building systems in the hospitality sector.
… newly minted brand, Outset Collection, will be incremental drivers of our conversion momentum in the years to come, as will new brands, several of which we expect to launch later this year. Even with robust openings in the fourth quarter, our pipeline reached the highest level in our history, surpassing 520,000 rooms, reflecting both year-over-year and sequential growth, driven by expansion across strategic markets and brand categories. New development construction starts in the U.S. were up over 25% in 2025. a trend that we expect to accelerate even further into 2026. Globally, for 2026, we expect new development construction starts to be up over 20%, bringing us back close to 2019 levels, signaling healthy developer appetite. As we look ahead, we expect that our robust global pipeline, strength in conversions, construction start momentum, and industry-leading brand premiums will support sustained net unit growth of between 6% to 7% for 2026 and beyond. We also remain focused on initiatives to drive increased loyalty, engagement, and guest satisfaction. In 2025, we strengthened our Hilton Honors Program by making loyalty both more accessible and more rewarding by …
Hilton sees a growing opportunity in AI-driven distribution and expects it to lower distribution costs for owners over time, while maintaining pricing control.