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F FY2025 Q4 IMPROVING

Ford Motor Company 실적 발표

Feb 10, 2026 · 17:00 ET Alicia Bowler-DavisAndrew FrickJim Farley
Buzzberg 분석

2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and Blue

Ford delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.

Buzzberg 분석 2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and Blue Ford delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기

Ford delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.

  • Ford Pro EBIT was $6.8B on $66B revenue with double-digit margin, highlighting the strength of its commercial business.
  • Ford Model E losses improved to $4.8B, with management targeting breakeven by 2029.
  • 2026 guidance calls for EBIT of $8-10B, FCF of $5-6B, and capex of $9.5-10.5B, with segment EBIT for Pro, Blue, Model E, and Credit detailed.
Revenue $45.89B reported
EPS $0.13 reported
Gross margin 3.72% reported
Op margin -1.98% reported

이번 분기에 달라진 점

01
Guidance

2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and Blue

Guidance tone

02
Ford Pro

Ford Pro's software and services now 19% of EBIT, targeting 20%

FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.

03
EV losses

Model E losses to improve but remain $4-4.5B in 2026

Ford Pro EBIT was $6.8B on $66B revenue with double-digit margin, highlighting the strength of its commercial business.

04
Supply

Novellus impact to improve $1B in 2026 but temporary costs

Ford Model E losses improved to $4.8B, with management targeting breakeven by 2029.

수요 및 자본지출

수요

수주 및 전환

Ford guides to a $8-10B EBIT for 2026, reflecting positive market mix, improved costs, and regulatory benefits, despite significant temporary costs from the Novelis supply disruption.

자본지출

투자 및 생산능력

Ford is raising capex to $9.5-10.5 billion in 2026, up over $1 billion, primarily to fund Ford Energy ($1.5 billion) and continued investments in UEV, EREV, and modeling, while shifting capital toward higher-return truck and multi-energy portfolio.

톤 · Confident

Management expressed confidence in executing strategy, highlighting strong foundations, improved cost and quality, and a clear path to 8% EBIT margin, while acknowledging near-term headwinds.

공급망 알파

A1

Ford expects to incur $1.5-2 billion of temporary costs (including tariffs and premium freight) to ensure aluminum supply continuity until the Novelis hot mill restarts between May and September, impacting 2026 EBIT and free cash flow.

“That includes $1.5 to $2 billion of temporary costs, including tariffs, to ensure continuity in aluminum supply. These costs are not expected to be repeated in 2027.”
Sherry Howe
A2

Ford's new 'Ford Energy' business will invest ~$1.5 billion in 2026 to build 20 GWh of LFP battery storage capacity, leveraging CATL's licensed technology, with customer contracts already being discussed.

“We have been deeply engaged with customers as we develop this business plan and we continue to engage them in specific contracts for our 20 gigawatt hour capacity in 27 and beyond.”
Jim Farley
A3

Ford has lost ~100,000 units of production in 2025 due to Novelis fires and expects to only recover 50-60k units in 2026, indicating a more gradual volume recovery.

“So we had lost around 100,000 units last year. we're planning to increase by about 50 to 60 this year is the plan.”
Sherry Howe
A4

Ford concluded 2025 with $1.5 billion in cost improvements, exceeding its original $1 billion target, and is targeting an additional $1 billion in 2026.

“we ended up with one and a half billion of cost improvements in a year over year basis versus what we originally were targeting at one.”
Sherry Howe
A5

Ford expects the US regulatory environment to be a ~$500 million tailwind in 2026, primarily from reduced EV emission credit requirements, reflecting a more industrial-friendly policy stance.

“the biggest impact there would be about a half a billion less of credits in the US. You'll note that we had about 0.7 billion of credits last year, but about a half a billion of that is attributed to the US.”
Sherry Howe

향후 가이던스

ImprovingGuidance tone
향후 가이던스
지표기간범위중간값상태
CapexFY2026$9.5B–$10.5B$10BGUIDED
Free cash flowFY2026$5B–$6B$5.5BGUIDED
Op marginMODEL_EFY2026$-4.5B–$-4B$-4.25BGUIDED
Op marginFORD_BLUEFY2026$4B–$4.5B$4.25BGUIDED
Op marginFORD_CREDITFY2026$2.5B$2.5BGUIDED
Op marginFORD_PROFY2026$6.5B–$7.5B$7BGUIDED
Op marginFY20268%8%GUIDED

기업 영향 분석

-19.7%
발표 이후
$425.50$341.75
경쟁사

Ford views Tesla's profitability in the sub-$35,000 EV market as proof of concept for its own UEV strategy.

“Tesla's shown that we can make money in that market even without subsidy from the government at the right cost level.”
Jim Farley
-19.1%
발표 이후
$61.30$49.59
공급망공급망 알파

Ford expects to incur $1.5-2 billion of temporary costs (including tariffs and premium freight) to ensure aluminum supply continuity until the Novelis hot mill restarts between May and September, impacting 2026 EBIT and free cash flow. — Ford's temporary premium freight costs and aluminum supply de-risking could signal tightness in the aluminum supply chain, benefiting primary aluminum producers.