EFX FY2026 Q1 IN LINE

Equifax, Inc. 실적 발표

Apr 21, 2026 · 04:30 ET John GambleMark VigorTrevor Burns

Buzzberg 분석

Strong Q1 beat driven by mortgage, twin indicator share gains

Equifax reported a strong Q1 beat but kept full-year guidance unchanged due to macro uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Management highlighted accelerating VantageScore adoption (pricing cut to $1) and a large refinancing pipeline from high-rate mortgages. AI-driven efficiency gains are starting to flow through to margins. Q1 revenue $1.65B (+14% reported, +13% organic) beat guidance by $37M; EPS $1.86 (+22%) beat by $0.18.

Buzzberg 분석 Strong Q1 beat driven by mortgage, twin indicator share gains Equifax reported a strong Q1 beat but kept full-year guidance unchanged due to macro uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Management highlighted accelerating VantageScore adoption (pricing cut to $1) and a large refinancing pipeline from high-rate mortgages. AI-driven efficiency gains are starting to flow through to margins. Q1 revenue $1.65B (+14% reported, +13% organic) beat guidance by $37M; EPS $1.86 (+22%) beat by $0.18. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기

Full-year guidance maintained despite beat, citing Iran conflict uncertainty; Q2 revenue guided $1.68-1.71B.
US mortgage revenue surged 38% in Q1 but has weakened since March as rates rose; large refinancing pool (15M+ mortgages >5%) remains a tailwind.
VantageScore mortgage pricing cut from $4.50 to $1 to drive conversion; 240+ originators ingesting free Vantage score — margin upside of $35M annually if fully converted.

Revenue $1.6489B +6% QoQ

EPS $1.86 -11% QoQ

Gross margin 53.48% reported

Op margin 17.45% reported

이번 분기에 달라진 점

Guidance

Strong Q1 beat driven by mortgage, twin indicator share gains

Guidance · revenue to $6.745B

Guidance

Full year guidance held despite strong start due to Iran conflict

Guidance · revenue to $6.745B

Pricing

VantageScore pricing cut to $1 to spur adoption

Full-year guidance maintained despite beat, citing Iran conflict uncertainty; Q2 revenue guided $1.68-1.71B.

Growth

Government pipeline up over 2x, expects benefits in 2027

US mortgage revenue surged 38% in Q1 but has weakened since March as rates rose; large refinancing pool (15M+ mortgages >5%) remains a tailwind.

AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석

플랫폼 및 수익화

Management is emphasizing AI as a core driver of innovation and productivity. They cite AI-based patents, new products like 'Ignite AI Advisor for Auto,' and AI-driven cost efficiencies in operations, which are contributing to margin expansion. They believe their proprietary data and AI capabilities create a competitive moat.

수요

수주 및 전환

Equifax maintained full-year guidance despite a Q1 beat, citing macro uncertainty from the Iran conflict. This cautious stance tempers the strong start, pointing to a neutral near-term outlook.

자본지출

투자 및 생산능력

No specific capital expenditure guidance was discussed, but management highlighted the completion of the cloud transformation (90% of revenue on new platforms) and continued investment in AI and new products. They did not mention any changes to capex guidance.

톤 · Confident

Management strikes a confident tone, citing strong Q1 results, record vitality index, and significant opportunities in Vantage Score and government business, while acknowledging macro uncertainty.

공급망 알파

Equifax has identified a pool of over 15 million US mortgages with rates above 5% (including 13.5M above 6% and 9.5M above 6.5%), providing a large refinancing pipeline that could drive mortgage volumes if rates decline modestly.

“We estimate that there are over 15 million mortgages that were issued with an interest rate over 5%, including about 13.5 million with rates over 6%, and over 9.5 million with rates over 6.5%.”

John Gamble

Equifax lowered its VantageScore mortgage pricing from $4.50 to $1 to accelerate conversion, citing a $1 billion annual savings opportunity for originators and consumers. This aggressive pricing move could compress FICO's market share in mortgage scoring.

FICO

“We lowered our Vantage mortgage pricing from $4.50 to $1 to further incent conversion by the industry. We believe this pricing change will further accelerate mortgage originator conversions to Vantage, given the substantial $1 billion of a…”

Mark Vigor

향후 가이던스

In LineGuidance · revenue to $6.745B

향후 가이던스
지표	기간	범위	중간값	상태
EPS	FY2026	$8.50–$8.58	$8.54	MAINTAINED
EPS	FY2026 Q2	$2.15–$2.25	$2.20	GUIDED
Op marginEBITDA	FY2026	$2.05B–$2.15B	$2.1B	GUIDED
Revenue	FY2026	$6.72B–$6.77B	$6.745B	MAINTAINED
Revenue	FY2026 Q2	$1.68B–$1.71B	$1.695B	GUIDED

가이던스 신뢰도

1 / 2달성 또는 상회

가이던스 신뢰도
제시 시점	지표	목표 기간	가이던스	실제	결과
FY2025 Q3	EPS	FY2025 Q4	$1.98–$2.08	$2.09	Met / beat
FY2025 Q3	Op margin	FY2025 Q4	33%–33.3%	18.33%	Missed

기업 영향 분석

FICO

-2.6%

발표 이후

$1,067.50→$1,040.00

공급업체공급망 알파

Equifax lowered its VantageScore mortgage pricing from $4.50 to $1 to accelerate conversion, citing a $1 billion annual savings opportunity for originators and consumers. This aggressive pricing move could compress FICO's market share in mortgage scoring. — A $1 Vantage score vs. ~$10 for FICO creates a massive cost incentive for lenders to switch, which could rapidly erode FICO's near-monopoly in agency mortgage scoring and boost Equifax's margins.

“We make no margin on the sale of FICO scores. FICO mortgage scores revenue is about 50% of the USIS mortgage revenue and 6% of total Equifax revenue, delivering zero margin.”

Mark Vigor