Demand
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자본지출
A1
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FY2025 Q4
둔화
Deere & Company 실적 발표
Buzzberg 분석
Management sees fiscal 2026 as the bottom of the large ag cycle
Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline.
Buzzberg 분석 Management sees fiscal 2026 as the bottom of the large ag cycle Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기
Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline.
- FY2026 guides net income $4-4.75B, with PPA sales down 5-10%, SAT/CNF up ~10%.
- North America large ag industry expected down 15-20% in 2026; Europe flat-to-up 5%, South America flat.
- Tariffs: $1.2B pre-tax impact in 2026 (~$600M incremental); price-cost expected positive.
EQUIPMENT_OPERATIONS 매출$10.6B보고값
매출$12.094B보고값
주당순이익(EPS)$3.93보고값
매출총이익률32.57%보고값
근거 있는 핵심 내용 6개
지금 중요한 점
이번 발표에서 가장 의미 있는 변화를 정리했습니다.
Margins
Direct tariff expense guided to about $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026
Production
Management plans lean Q1 large ag production but keeps back-half flexibility
핵심 내용 3개 더 보기
Inventory
Used inventory is improving through targeted pool funds and dealer focus
Demand
North American earth moving order book is up roughly 25% year over year
Technology
See & Spray adoption is scaling with roughly 50% average herbicide savings
보고 기간
보고 실적
| 지표 | 보고값 | 변화 |
|---|---|---|
| EQUIPMENT_OPERATIONS 매출 | $10.6B | 보고값 |
| 매출 | $12.094B | 보고값 |
| 주당순이익(EPS) | $3.93 | 보고값 |
| 매출총이익률 | 32.57% | 보고값 |
| 영업이익률 | 15.67% | 보고값 |
| 잉여현금흐름 | $2.628B | 보고값 |
향후 전망
향후 가이던스
| 지표 | 기간 | 범위 | 중간값 | 상태 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 영업이익률PRODUCTION_PRECISION_AG | FY2026 | 11%–13% | 12% | 제시 |
| 영업이익률SMALL_AG_TURF | FY2026 | 12.5%–14% | 13.25% | 제시 |
| 영업이익률CONSTRUCTION_FORESTRY | FY2026 | 8%–10% | 9% | 제시 |
| 매출PRODUCTION_PRECISION_AG | FY2026 | -10%–-5% | -7.5% | 제시 |
| 매출SMALL_AG_TURF | FY2026 | 8%–12% | 10% | 제시 |
| 매출CONSTRUCTION_FORESTRY | FY2026 | 9%–11% | 10% | 제시 |
AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석
경영진 분석
Cautiously Optimisti
Management acknowledged the down-cycle and tariff headwinds but repeatedly cited signs of stabilization, a likely 2026 trough in large ag, and growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry.
경영진의 AI 분석
Management did not frame it as 'AI' explicitly but described accelerating adoption of its autonomy and precision stack: See & Spray covered >5M acres with ~50% herbicide savings, Harvest Settings automation took a >90% first-year take rate, and autonomous tillage has covered >200K acres. Monetization remains embedded in equipment/software attach and customer value creation rather than a separate A
투자 및 생산능력
No standalone capex figure was disclosed. Management highlighted record R&D investment in fiscal 2025 and said it remains focused on supporting robust levels of R&D and capital spending to fund technology-led growth, implying capital investment is being maintained through the downturn.
아래에 언급된 기업 2개 모두 표시
기업발표 이후 수익률
공급망
공급망
Deanna Kovar
Deere will keep North American large ag production lean in Q1, avoiding the typical seasonal inventory build, with flexibility to ramp later — signaling ongoing retail weakness and used inventory overhang. — Competitors' production plans will be pressured to match Deere's cautious stance, potentially intensifying price competition.
근거
“It's our intent to start the new fiscal year with lean production for North American large ag, while building flexibility in the full-year production plan to respond quickly when the market inflects.”
외부 신호
공급망 알파 · 1발표 이후 수익률
Deere will keep North American large ag production lean in Q1, avoiding the typical seasonal inventory build, with flexibility to ramp later — signaling ongoing retail weakness and used inventory overhang.
방법론 및 범위
경영진 발언만 분석합니다. 검증된 기업 언급 2개를 모두 표시하며, 보고 실적과 향후 가이던스를 분리합니다. 공개 근거는 화자가 표시된 짧은 인용문 8개로 제한됩니다. AI 분석은 불완전하거나 틀릴 수 있으므로 중요한 주장은 원문에서 확인하세요.