ADM FY2025 Q4 개선

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company 실적 발표

Feb 03, 2026 · 08:30 ET Juan LucianoKate WalshMonish Patilawala earningscall_biz

Buzzberg 분석

2026 EPS guidance range reflects policy timing uncertainty

ADM reported Q4 2025 earnings that were down significantly due to weak crush margins and softness in consumer-driven markets, but management offered a more constructive 2026 outlook. The guidance calls for EPS growth driven by expected US biofuel policy clarity, improved trade flows, and a continued recovery in the nutrition segment, while highlighting persistent challenges in starches and sweeteners. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.87, bringing full-year 2025 EPS to $3.43, down from prior year due to weak AS&O performance, particularly in crushing.

Buzzberg 분석 2026 EPS guidance range reflects policy timing uncertainty ADM reported Q4 2025 earnings that were down significantly due to weak crush margins and softness in consumer-driven markets, but management offered a more constructive 2026 outlook. The guidance calls for EPS growth driven by expected US biofuel policy clarity, improved trade flows, and a continued recovery in the nutrition segment, while highlighting persistent challenges in starches and sweeteners. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.87, bringing full-year 2025 EPS to $3.43, down from prior year due to weak AS&O performance, particularly in crushing. 전체 분석 보기분석 접기

2026 EPS guidance is set at $3.60-$4.25, with the high end contingent on the timing and adoption of US biofuel policies (RVO) and stronger consumer demand.
The company expects the Alltech JV to be neutral to profits but a headwind to reported revenue.
Ethanol margins are expected to be relatively strong in 2026, offsetting continued softness in starches and sweeteners.

매출$18.556B보고값

주당순이익(EPS)$0.87보고값

매출총이익률6.54%보고값

영업이익률1.72%보고값

근거 있는 핵심 내용 6개

지금 중요한 점

이번 발표에서 가장 의미 있는 변화를 정리했습니다.

Guidance

2026 EPS guidance range reflects policy timing uncertainty

Macro

Expected to be more constructive operating environment in 2026

Cost Savings

Cost savings program on track; more manufacturing productivity planned

핵심 내용 3개 더 보기

Demand

Nutrition growth driven by flavors, specialty, and biotics

Margins

Ethanol margins to offset softness in starches and sweeteners

Macro

Ag Services and Oilseeds benefit from China trade progress and biofuel policy

보고 기간

보고 실적

지표	보고값	변화
매출	$18.556B	보고값
주당순이익(EPS)	$0.87	보고값
매출총이익률	6.54%	보고값
영업이익률	1.72%	보고값
잉여현금흐름	$-0.669B	보고값
자본지출	$0.356B	보고값

향후 전망

향후 가이던스

지표	기간	범위	중간값	상태
자본지출	FY2026	$1.3B–$1.5B	$1.4B	제시
주당순이익(EPS)	FY2026	$3.60–$4.25	$3.92	제시

AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석

경영진 분석

톤

Cautiously Optimisti

Management expresses confidence in a more constructive operating environment ahead, but repeatedly emphasizes uncertainty around policy timing and market adoption, reflecting a measured and careful tone.

자본지출

투자 및 생산능력

Management plans to invest $1.3 to $1.5 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, up from $1.2 billion in 2025, and highlighted a disciplined capital allocation policy focused on solid cash flow generation and continued cost savings. They also mentioned investments in growth platforms such as enhanced nutrition, biotics, bio solutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, including carbon s

아래에 언급된 기업 1개 모두 표시

기업발표 이후 수익률

공급망

GPC -7.5%

공급망

ADM expects ~$100M of benefit from 45Z clean fuel tax credits in 2026, but notes it is highly variable depending on final guidance, plant carbon intensity, and industry pricing dynamics. — This is the first quantified estimate from ADM on the impact of 45Z, providing a baseline for investors but also highlighting the uncertainty in modeling the benefit across the industry.

근거

“We think when we put in our estimate, we think that it could be approximately $100 million. But as I said, just to give you a flavor, there are many variables, so take that with a grain of salt.”

Juan Luciano

외부 신호

공급망 알파 · 2발표 이후 수익률

ADM's North American plant operating costs have become structurally higher post-COVID, impacting margins relative to peers and historical performance.

Juan Luciano

ADM+25.0%

근거

“I would say the main difference since I've been running this for so many years is our manufacturing costs have gone up.”

ADM expects ~$100M of benefit from 45Z clean fuel tax credits in 2026, but notes it is highly variable depending on final guidance, plant carbon intensity, and industry pricing dynamics.

Juan Luciano

ADM+25.0%GPC-7.5%

방법론 및 범위

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