Offsides Macro
· Offsides Macro
· June 28, 2026 at 18:00
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The newsletter argues that equity positioning has reached an extreme (Upper Extreme) after aggressive net-buying, while fixed-income flows are losing momentum in the 5-year sector and energy is approaching an inflection point but WTI is not yet ready. This suggests near-term caution on equities and a potential shift in capital flows, with pair trade opportunities in metals and selective energy products (RBOB, Heating Oil) showing early positioning signals.
•S&P net-buying over the past 18 months was the most aggressive, pushing positioning into Upper Extreme territory (consensus Overweight).
•Flows in 5-year Treasury notes are losing momentum, indicating a potential shift in rate positioning.
•WTI crude is not seen as ready, but RBOB and Heating Oil are showing 'positioning green shoots' — early bullish signals.
•Metals are experiencing dispersion across the group, creating pair trade setups.