Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· June 13, 2026 at 08:25
· ⏱ 14 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that the degrowth movement, which advocates for reducing material consumption in rich countries to combat climate change, is primarily a European phenomenon that would intentionally impoverish the continent. He criticizes the movement's lack of empirical rigor (90% of degrowth studies are opinions, not analysis) and warns that embracing degrowth would cripple Europe's economy and military capacity at a time when it faces external threats from Russia and China. For markets, the article implies a policy risk that could weigh on European equities if degrowth ideas gain traction, but offers no specific tradeable ideas.
•A systematic review of 561 degrowth studies found nearly 90% were opinions rather than formal analysis, with few using quantitative data or modeling (Savin and van den Bergh 2024).
•Data from Pritchett (2022) shows that no country has escaped poverty without economic growth, contradicting degrowthers' claim that growth has decoupled from shared prosperity.
•The Guardian op-ed advocating degrowth was detected as 100% AI-generated by Pangram, and contained no actual mathematical analysis despite its headline 'We've done the maths'.
•Degrowth proponents are predominantly European (Piketty, Hickel, Raworth, Parrique) and the movement has gained no traction in the US, Canada, Australia, or developing countries.
•Europe faces a dire military threat from Russia, which has drone advantages, and its supply chains are heavily dependent on Chinese parts and materials.
•The article notes that European leftists historically promoted growth (e.g., praising Soviet Union, Venezuela), but now advocate making Europeans poorer, which Smith calls a 'colossal failure' of the left's original vision.