POET Update: Where Are We At Today?

Summary

The author provides an update on POET Tech, acknowledging an expanded balance sheet and broader customer base but highlighting that the Marvell order cancellation remains a critical failure. The thesis hinges on whether management can execute on shipments in H2 2026, with the bear case centered on trust and lack of proof; the article is largely a neutral-to-cautious reassessment rather than a actionable call.

•Marvell canceled Celestial purchase orders, removing a key validation point for the author's original thesis.
•Management is now discussing Malaysia capacity, H2 shipments, Blazar, external light sources, and design-win funnel more directly.
•Lumilens provides a clearer revenue target for 2027, but the author still views execution proof as missing.
•The author moved the Marvell-related part of the thesis to zero and will only reconsider if orders are reinstated or a new agreement is reached.

Read time 1 min

Length 1,211 chars

Category finance

Ideas

Gaetano Substack author, Gaetano

The author explicitly states the Marvell blunder made it hard to trust management, that they still haven't executed as desired, and that the bear case remains present. This is a direct critique of POET's strategy and management credibility, warranting an AVOID stance for investors waiting for proof of execution. Risk: If POET delivers on H2 shipments and Malaysia capacity, the AVOID stance could become overly cautious; the positive catalysts are not zero.

This newsletter, published June 30, 2026, features Gaetano discussing POET. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Gaetano · Tickers: POET

Ideas

More from Gaetano