Is the Optics Trade Doomed? CPO scares...

Gaetano · Gaetano · June 10, 2026 at 00:52 · ⏱ 2 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that the CPO (co-packaged optics) scale-up timeline may be longer than expected, extending the runway for copper and pluggable optics while shifting the optical adoption sequence. He believes the market overreacted to the CPO delay by indiscriminately selling optical names, creating a buying opportunity in oversold optical component stocks.
  • Broadcom's Hock Tan said custom XPU customers could keep using direct-attached copper through 2028, triggering a rally in Credo and selloffs in Lumentum and Coherent.
  • The SemiAnalysis CPO report has revived the debate on CPO timing, with the author noting that the optical thesis remains strong but the form-factor sequence has changed.
  • Copper gains more duration, pluggables get extended runway, NPO (near-package optics) is pulled forward, and CPO becomes a longer-term strategic play.
  • The author contends the initial market reaction was too blunt and that many optical names sold off unjustifiably, presenting an opportunity.
Read time 2 min
Length 2,614 chars
Category finance
Ideas
Gaetano Substack author, Gaetano
The article notes that Lumentum sold off after Broadcom's copper commentary and again on CPO timing fears, but the author believes the optical thesis remains strong and that many optical names should
The article notes that Lumentum sold off after Broadcom's copper commentary and again on CPO timing fears, but the author believes the optical thesis remains strong and that many optical names should not have sold off, implying Lumentum is oversold and presents an opportunity. Risk: CPO delays could become permanent, or copper could extend further, reducing optical demand longer term.
Gaetano Substack author, Gaetano
Coherent (formerly II-VI) is mentioned alongside Lumentum as having sold off on CPO timing fears. The author argues that the market reaction was too blunt and that optical names like Coherent still be
Coherent (formerly II-VI) is mentioned alongside Lumentum as having sold off on CPO timing fears. The author argues that the market reaction was too blunt and that optical names like Coherent still benefit from pluggable runway, NPO pull-forward, and strong overall optical adoption, making the selloff a potential buying opportunity. Risk: If CPO timeline moves even further right or if copper displaces more optical spend than expected, Coherent could face sustained headwinds.
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