Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· August 24, 2026 at 10:26
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Crude benchmarks look subdued relative to their highs, but the refined products households and businesses actually consume have not seen the same relief and are marching higher. With benchmark crude also drifting upward over the past couple of weeks, headline crude weakness understates energy cost pressure — supporting refining margins and keeping energy-driven inflation in focus.
•Crude benchmarks remain far off their highs, but prices of oil products consumed by households and businesses have seen much less relief and are marching higher.
•Over the last couple of weeks, benchmark crude prices have shown a consistent upward movement.
•The article links at least some of the crude move to administration rhetorical efforts or leaks to reporters, suggesting a policy/news-driven layer to the recent price action.
Length244 chars
Categoryfinance
Ideas
Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited; ex-Investment Committee, Bridgewater
Article says product prices consumed by households and businesses are 'marching higher' while crude benchmarks are 'far off highs' — a widening product-crude spread is a direct driver of independent r
Article says product prices consumed by households and businesses are 'marching higher' while crude benchmarks are 'far off highs' — a widening product-crude spread is a direct driver of independent refiner margins and cash flows.
Risk: Refining crack spreads can reverse quickly if crude feedstock costs rise or product supply constraints ease.
Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited; ex-Investment Committee, Bridgewater
The same product-crude divergence highlighted in the article supports large U.S. refiners like Marathon Petroleum, whose margins are leveraged to the gasoline and diesel cracks that are marching highe
The same product-crude divergence highlighted in the article supports large U.S. refiners like Marathon Petroleum, whose margins are leveraged to the gasoline and diesel cracks that are marching higher.
Risk: Heavy crude cost increases or lower utilization due to maintenance could compress the same spread.
This newsletter, published August 24, 2026,
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