Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· August 16, 2026 at 22:06
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Summary
The newsletter argues that long-term Treasury yields at multi-decade highs alongside record-high equities jointly imply markets are pricing extraordinary future growth, a view that is hard to reconcile with weak employment. This divergence leaves markets vulnerable if growth expectations are not confirmed by incoming data.
•Long-end Treasury yields ended the week near multi-decade highs.
•Equities also ended the week at highs, indicating strong risk appetite.
•The combination of high long-end yields and high stock prices implies markets expect extraordinary growth despite weak employment data.