TTD: Reminds me of META 2022

If you’ll recall, [Meta’s stock crashed to below $90](https://valueinvesting.substack.com/p/meta) in Nov 2022 over concerns that its growth was coming to an end. Apple had just released ATT, Tiktok was taking over attention share, Zuck stubbornly defended wanton Metaverse spend, and the Tech bubble was bursting — all at the same time. On top of that, Meta reported *declining revenues for the first time*, sparking fears that users were fleeing the geriatric platform for cooler social media hangouts like Tiktok or Snap. **TTD today is exactly what Meta felt like in 2022**. Similar to Meta, the concern is that TTD’s revenue growth is ebbing as it reported Q2 YoY growth of just 3% and guided for negative growth in Q3, causing the share price to crash by over -20% after earnings. The questions surrounding TTD are also similar: is this just a temporary blip, or is growth structurally impaired? Here’s what TTD’s CEO Jeff Green had to say during the Q2 earnings call: >*“It’s really important that the bigger takeaways are that we* ***signed over 200 JBPs*** *through Q2, and that represents* ***38% growth year-over-year****. The JBP growth rate is six times higher than overall revenue. The majority of our* ***top 100 accounts are growing double digits****.* ***CTV and audio grew double digits*** *once again in Q2. Audio actually became our fastest-growing channel and now represents over 7% of our business.* >*I don’t think we gave enough word count to the fact that* ***EMEA and APAC have both grown at almost 30% year to date****. Both of them have done really phenomenal, where in recent years that hasn’t been the case. The fact that those are now paying off is amazing, and the fact that the second-largest market in* ***China is now growing over 100% year to date*** *for us is fantastic. Of course, we had over* ***50% CTV growth year over year in both EMEA and APAC****, where historically those were mostly mobile-first markets, and to see CTV doing so well in each of those markets, it’s just underscoring that we’ve made the right investments.”* Does this sound like a business in structural decline? For context, CTV is TTD’s largest channel at nearly 50% revenue share, and International is about 15% of total revenues with plenty of room to grow. The industry is also a large and growing one, with a TAM of about $1T.