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Hi guys you may know me from previous DD's such as the HIMS multi-part dd, RKLB (rockets for simple jacks) dd, and a few others.
I don't use Ai and this will be a schizo rant, I basically read all day about these topics as in depth as possible (trust me bro).
It's trading at a disgusting 40ish PE basically the same as walmart, while it has 45% annual rev. growth (dropped recently due to crypto falloff but I think we see surprise gains in other product lines and more to come) and is bringing on increasing AUM and new product classes.
There is one thread now for the path that lies before us.
**Robinhood** \- the man who took from the king and gave to the poor. We will go into this further.
Robinhood will be taking from the big banks and giving to the poor (millenials, genZ, genX, genalpha).
What do these demographics do with the money? They gamble it.
They like solid UI's and taking big risks. They cry about housing prices but they don't have the desire to LARP as real estate entreprenuers like all the boomers did (who speculated and drove up housing prices). Money will flow from legacy brokers from their deceased parents & houses they sell into their robinhood accounts. (I expect Robinhood AUM doubles every few years during this period from weighted averages of asset classes and some assumptions I made on their cascade)
Then we have social dynamics - with the rise in popularity influencers like "Clavicular" it's obvious young men (the class that likes to gamble the most...) are desperate for social standing to fulfill their most biological impulse - to reproduce. This has been a battle since the beginning of time, to pass on your genetics and legacy. It's inherent drive and that dream used to be placated by providing a house and survival for women, who in turn couldn't provide for themselves these things.
We now live in the age of plenty - Women truly do not need men to survive our current iterration of society so these men left out aren't wrong to gamble it all....what is more important than to reproduce, create a genetic representation of you to live on and forge the only true bond of unconditional love one can only have between parents and children? Well you need alot of money for that to work - or you can try looksmaxxing, status maxxing ,and jester gooning.
Another interesting fact is that as men attain wealth their desire to have a family increases, while for Women the OPPOSITE is true. This just shows how important it is for men to fill that void to have a chance.
This biological impetus is the ultimate driving force behind the gambling epidemic, and Robinhood is genius for stepping in with their massive $355B in platform assets and making gambling convenient on sports along with options. Just look at the rising popularity of sports betting....25% of GenZ do that shit in their 401k and consider it a viable long term retirement strategy lmaooo
In the next 10-15 years boomers will die leading to the largest wealth transfer in history, and all that cash is going into the hands of the unfuckable unmarried or unhappilly married and looking to upgrade wives (wife changing money) masses of korean-ified retail gamblers who will think this is the big one, and robinhood will find a way to legally allow them to cross leverage their mortgages to their sports parlays.
The team at robinhood is small and agile, they build excellent software and the big banks can't keep up with how attractive that is. They are unafraid to bring on new exciting products (gambling vehicles) fast and efficiently, with excellent marketing, organic traffic, and hype. I personally really want a robinhood gold card, who doesn't? I am begging for a credit card...
We are seeing a changing of the guard to a small broker that can in the future function as a bank.
We see currently all the big banks are trying to figure out how to get the customer in as many products as possible (they have been for decades) but they were behind the curve on the most popular products, sports betting, options trading, etc. Don't believe me? Go into your chase and get acosted by their crap Ui and offers for their investment services (lul)
Now lets consider the big bad boy in the room - Warsh and Bessent. Combined they can conduct yield curve control, and the US just reached the same debt to GDP ratio we had after WW2 when we last conducted YCC. Today Bessent basically echo'd the Treasuries role in this...all that is missing is the fed. Once the realization hits that it's either default on natl debt or inflate it away, YCC becomes obvious. This equates to basically a single mandate - controlling yield, via unlimited printing (I estimate they will cause about 30% inflation before they volker us, similar to another covid). Markets will be insanely liquid, COVID style. Considering we just had the biggest MOMO crash in history, this is PRIME.
**Upcoming accute catalysts besides the above:**
**Jackson Hole** \- we will probably see rate hike odds drop even further (if not, this trade is cooked)
I expect a 20% gain from this alone in underlying commons
**Robinhood Event** \- We will hear new product lines and hype - it will become apparent to normies robinhood is a serious threat as the "everything" finance app for millenial, genz, genAlpha, etc. Lets tack on 10% from that event bump if macro cooperates.
**Mid Terms** \- risk off event, either way the end result will be a Trump emperor in power that will be lame duck and ready to fire off some executive orders and cause chaos to be remembered. I expect extreme bullishness end of year and into next year.
I am positioning with OTM options, I see this as a binary bet on a purposely inflationary blowoff by the fed which they will not call YCC because that is not politically tenable but they will do it anyways. Warsh, Bessent, Druck, all aligned and they are hinting at the "NO FAIL" mission of AI as a factor for economic growth. They literally cannot hike and crush that or they risk not only destroying US hegemony through technology, they might still default just based on that, but also higher rates on the debt xD.
Even though it's this obvious, I gave myself a 55% chance of being right- if so and this stock gets the multiples it deserves when we see rev growth accelerate as AUM goes bonkers AND new product lines come online (more betting ,more prediction markets, more options etc.) then i expect a 5-10x on options.
Positions: March calls, from 100 to 130 strikes, some cheeky 290s as fliers.
TLDR: Robinhood is takign from the boomers, big banks, big brokers, and consolidating finance and gambling into a gamified app for social media 1-shot millenials, genz, and gen alpha. When the market figures this out, if we get a liquidity blow off which weve seen hints of today, it will go ballistic. Prob 200-300 range easily. IDK how long it will take institutions to realize this but they are primarily boomers that like PE ratios and old banks and fidelity Ui so good luck to them.