u/sharkjaws000 ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· August 08, 2026 at 01:44
· ⬆ 24 pts
· 💬 21 comments
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Many people are talking about the high equity valuations of global markets and how it's beginning to look almost irrational. Well let me tell you about how bizarre Australia is getting. Unlike US markets where companies are known for incredible growth, the big companies in Australia are known for modest and predictive earnings. Four of the top five companies on the ASX 200 are our four major banks. Australian banks benefit from our extremely inflated housing market and residential property obsession. Our four major banks make up 25% of the top 200 companies in our index.
Australian bank stocks have always been a dividend paying equity. Payout ratios are high, normally around 80% of profits get returned to shareholders, and around 10 years ago it was common to get 5-6% dividend yield buying any of the four major banks. However something bizarre has happened. Our banks share prices, particularly the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) have gone on a tear. Share prices are up, earnings are modest. Historically CBA traded at around a 15 times price multiple, however it's now 29 times earnings. The dividend yield on CBA has depressed to 2.75%. The yield on the 2 year AUS gov bond is 4.55%. I can't comprehend why people are accepting earnings yield of 3.4% which is below the risk free rate, when 80% of earnings are being returned to investors. Australian banks earnings have been modest for decades, there isn't enough room to grow to outpace bond returns into the future.
The upside from here must be limited, yet if there was a crash the fall should be spectacular given the current heights. Rates would be cut and reward those who lock in today's healthy yields. It's almost as if the equity risk premium has gone negative here in Australia. Investors taking on more risk for lower returns.
The market can be irrational, but that's mainly due to exorbitant belief said asset class/stock is new and will reinvent the world. However, here we are talking about a vanilla bank that has existed for over 100 years.