$AVEX — unjammable military drones, first profitable quarter, still mispriced
u/Valkyrie_Skuld ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· July 06, 2026 at 23:21
· ⬆ 22 pts
· 💬 21 comments
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Summary
Post analyzes Aevex Aerospace ($AVEX), a recently IPO'd military drone manufacturer with unjammable navigation technology, reporting its first profitable quarter and strong backlog.
Author argues the stock is mispriced after a secondary offering, citing 307% revenue growth, unanimous analyst buy ratings, and a $35.75 average price target (75% upside).
The DD is well-researched: includes financials, contract details, analyst consensus, and a clear thesis on why the company is undervalued relative to its defense niche.
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$AVEX
Aevex Aerospace. Public since April. Batman.
They build autonomous military drones. The nav system, CompassX, runs without GPS or an operator link. Cameras plus AI match the ground to a terrain map and place the aircraft inside 5 meters. Nothing to jam because nothing’s transmitting.
Every drone that relies on GPS or RF gets killed the second it meets real electronic warfare, which is now standard on any modern battlefield.
Army picked their Atlas strike platform for fielding last October; Air Force has cut them multiple one-way-attack contracts.
Numbers:
• Q1 rev $216.7M, +307% YoY off $53.3M
• Net income +$21M, from a -$27.3M loss
• Adj EBITDA +$36.4M, from -$13.4M
• FY guide $600–620M
• Backlog $356.6M, \~93% converting this year, plus a recent $50M USAF contract
Earnings Aug 14, options implying \~12%.
Madison Dearborn owns most of it. Part of the slide from $42 was a June secondary, 8M shares at $27, plus a block sale. Other read: MDP’s a build-and-hold shop (TransUnion, Asurion) deliberately building a defense arm. They trimmed didnt exit. Not sure if there’s more scheduled blocks
• 9 analysts, unanimous strong buy, avg target $35.75 (\~75%), high $45
• Not just drones, loitering munitions and unmanned surface vessels
• \~2-3M daily volume. Thin float, low coverage. Tried to hedge today it wasn’t great.
2000 shares, Aug and Oct $25 calls. Screenshot attached
TLDR- ai drones and surface vessels. Just turned a profit just IPOd in April. Big year for drones. Vision nav is cool. Will probably roll August calls to something longer but for now we ball.
AVEX reported Q1 revenue of $216.7M (+307% YoY), net income +$21M (vs -$27.3M loss), and adjusted EBITDA +$36.4M. Backlog of $356.6M with ~93% conversion this year, plus a recent $50M USAF contract. The stock slid from $42 to ~$27 due to a secondary offering (8M shares) and block sale, but the private equity holder (Madison Dearborn) is a build-and-hold firm, not an exit signal. Low float (~2-3M daily volume) and thin analyst coverage create mispricing relative to fundamentals. AVEX is a high-growth defense tech play with a moat (unjammable navigation) and just turned profitable. The author sees a catalyst in the Aug 14 earnings report and believes the stock is poised for re-rating. Additional block sales from Madison Dearborn could pressure the stock; defense budget cycles or contract delays; competition from larger primes; limited liquidity amplifies volatility.Note: No other actionable tickers were explicitly mentioned or strongly implied in the post.
This Reddit post, published July 06, 2026,
features u/Valkyrie_Skuld
discussing AVEX.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.