$AVAV — Thing That Actually Shoots Down Other Things
u/Interesting_Dingo194 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· July 06, 2026 at 00:55
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 20 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post details a bullish thesis on $AVAV (AeroVironment) after a massive 133% YoY revenue beat, a $500M Army contract win, insider buying, and an upcoming Investor Day on July 8.
The author is fully committed with $32k in 2x leveraged AVAV, believing the run continues due to strong backlog (book-to-bill 1.4x) and Pentagon demand for counter-UAS/SATCOM.
Quality assessment: Moderately well-researched DD with concrete financial data and analyst citations, but lacks risk management discussion and relies heavily on a single catalyst event (Investor Day).
Score15
Comments20
Upvote %72%
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I am not a financial advisor. I am a retard for a living with 32k in 2X leveraged AVAV this bull run still has legs.
AVAV just posted Q4 FY26 revenue of $641.6M, up 133% YoY, crushing the $556-559M consensus, with adjusted EPS of $1.84 vs. $1.47 expected. Stock ripped \~35% in three trading days on the print. Then, two days later, it landed a $500M firm fixed price Army contract for the Titan RF counter UAS system running through June 2029. Also Short term is massive insider buying with investors Day around the corner on July 8 hoping they clean guidance and this thing gaps up again. This is the exact setup 2x leverage was invented for.
Book-to-bill sits at 1.4x, meaning orders are outpacing revenue, backlog is building, not draining. BTIG flagged the Army IDIQ contract as a fresh catalyst, and Jefferies called the Titan award a strong signal for FY27 revenue visibility. Investor Day is July 8 in New York, where management is expected to lay out strategy post BlueHalo merger, which adds counter-UAS, SATCOM, and directed energy exposure areas the Pentagon is actively pouring money into.
Consensus sits around $258-259 (Buy rating, \~35% implied upside from \~$191). Range is wide — Street lows near $166-235, highs stretching to $361-450 depending on the shop. Piper Sandler’s at $248 Overweight; Jefferies just trimmed to $229 from $305 post-print (valuation catch-up, not a thesis change); Canaccord’s at $280.