u/Woberwob ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 25, 2026 at 13:44
· ⬆ 25 pts
· 💬 59 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author argues that Microsoft (MSFT) is a compelling long-term buy after a ~27% YoY drawdown, citing continued double-digit revenue/earnings growth, strong Azure performance, AI-driven office automation opportunities, and institutional accumulation.
The thesis is that the fundamental business remains intact and the stock is temporarily undervalued, making this an opportune entry point for a 1+ year holding period.
Quality assessment: This is moderate-quality speculation with some fundamental reasoning but lacks deep quantitative analysis (e.g., valuation multiples, capex ROI). It’s a general bullish thesis rather than a detailed DD.
Score25
Comments59
Upvote %84%
▶ Full Post Text
If you’re looking at least a one year holding period, this might be the day/week to start loading up on Microsoft if you haven’t already.
The stock has seen a drawdown of roughly 27% YoY while revenue and earnings continue to grow at double digit rates. The fundamental business is still well intact. Azure is growing at a hot pace. AI capex is high, but there’s a genuine opportunity for routine office automations with their business model. Government and most of the modern economy are dependent on Microsoft for parts of them to function. Institutions are loading up and recommending it as a buy.
What am I missing here?
MSFT stock is down ~27% YoY while revenue and earnings grow at double-digit rates; Azure is expanding rapidly and AI capex is high but tied to genuine automation demand. This disconnect between strong operational performance and a depressed stock price creates a mean-reversion or value opportunity, especially with institutional buying. Author sees MSFT as a high-quality compounder temporarily out of favor, suitable for a long-term buy-and-hold trade. Capital rotation continues toward faster-growing sectors (chips/DRAM like MU, NVDA); AI capex may not deliver near-term returns; MSFT could trade at ~20 P/E for an extended period or face another SaaS crash (noted in comments).