QQQ Skew Has Flipped

One thing that caught my attention going into next week is how much the QQQ skew has changed. A week ago, calls were still trading richer than puts. Even after the rally, people were willing to pay up for more upside exposure and call skew remained intact. That's no longer the case. Right now, downside protection is trading about 6 volatility points richer than comparable calls (based on the 25 delta's on each side for the weekly expiration). In other words, puts have become more expensive than calls. It is back to the normal regime where the options market is no longer paying the highest premium for upside convexity. Traders seem more interested in owning protection than chasing additional upside. I don't think this is necessarily a bearish signal. QQQ is still the cleanest expression of the current market: AI, mega-cap concentration, duration sensitivity, and crowded positioning. The long-term trend remains up. The market is pricing roughly a ±$24.86, equal to a 3.55% move for the week in QQQ, which gives a 1SD range of about $670-$732. To me, the takeaway isn't that QQQ is about to roll over. It's that after months of strength and a VIX near the lows, investors suddenly seem a lot more willing to pay for downside insurance after these strong job numbers. The market is clearly quite fragile and didn't need much to have an exorbitant move as the one we saw on Friday with QQQ closing down almost 5% Curious if anyone else has been watching the skew shift over the last couple of weeks and how you will be trading given the current market structure change. [QQQ Expected Move](https://preview.redd.it/va4i0lusvp5h1.png?width=1157&format=png&auto=webp&s=be41d15a020bc4cbf85072db57fc6e1eef6fdc7d)