MSFT and META LEAPS

I’d love to get some outside perspectives on two LEAPS positions I’m currently holding: Meta (long-dated call, Jan 2027) Microsoft (long-dated call, Mar 2027) My thesis going in was pretty simple: both are dominant players in AI, have massive cash flow, and should be long-term winners of the AI cycle. But recently I’ve been second-guessing things a bit, mainly because of **how aggressive their capital expenditures have become**. On one hand: AI demand seems very real (cloud growth, enterprise adoption, ads optimization, etc.) Microsoft is monetizing AI already through Azure/OpenAI integration Meta is improving ad performance with AI (which still drives \~98% of revenue) On the other hand: The **scale of spending is massive**, and returns aren’t fully proven yet Some analysts are starting to question whether this becomes a “build now, profit later (maybe)” situation Meta in particular seems more exposed since it relies heavily on ads vs diversified revenue streams There’s also concern that markets are being propped up by AI spending itself, which could be risky if it slows **My questions:** Do you see this level of AI capex as **justified (early innings of a huge cycle)** or **a potential overinvestment cycle**? Between Meta and Microsoft, which do you think is **better positioned to actually generate ROI** on this spending? For long-dated options (2027), do you think: The market will reward this spending before expiry Or could multiples compress if returns lag? Is Meta being undervalued because of these concerns, or is the market correctly pricing in risk? **My current dilemma:** At one point my Meta LEAPS were up quite a bit, and I didn’t take profit. Now I’m debating whether to: Hold and trust the long-term AI thesis Trim / de-risk given how much capital is being deployed Would really appreciate any thoughts, especially from people following AI infrastructure, cloud, or semis closely.