u/mr-highball ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· April 17, 2026 at 04:32
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 20 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The post is an anecdote about an individual's return to algorithmic trading, focusing on building a forecast-first model for Bitcoin prediction markets on Gemini.
The author's thesis is that a disciplined, iterative approach (manual trading first, then automation) and modern tools ("vibes," arguing with Codex) have accelerated their development cycle compared to earlier efforts.
Quality assessment: Noise. This is a personal progress update with no data, backtest results, or specific market insights shared.
Score16
Comments20
Upvote %86%
▶ Full Post Text
Focusing on btc prediction markets on Gemini (15 m/1hr/daily cadence). I'm not not new to algo trading... but I had put it down for a while since it was \_consuming\_. After \_the break\_ I took I think it let me reconcile some ideas. This pass I focused on a forecast first approach and built an authoring tool first that I used to make manual trades. When I felt confident in that, the next step was to use the same models, just in an automated fashion.
Back in the 2016/2017 crypto runs I spent a lot of time programming... and that went on for years... and years... well now we have vibes. Taking the lessons I learned back then its only taken me a few months of work to get things stood up (and a lot arguing with codex).
I need more data to really prove things out but I'm just happy to see a little progress... its been a ride.