How the War in Ukraine Changed Modern Warfare

Summary

Rob Turnbull of Bloomberg Intelligence explains how the Ukraine war has changed modern warfare by making the front line a transparent killing zone that reduces maneuver and increases the importance of drones, sensors, software and autonomy. He highlights Europe's rising defense spending but warns that NATO still lacks a clear doctrine for this new form of warfare. For investors, he suggests looking beyond expensive traditional defense primes toward picks-and-shovels defense technology suppliers such as Theon, hardened laptop makers, and emerging private Ukrainian firms.

• Ukraine changed the front line into a 30-35km killing zone where movement risks detection.
• Autonomy, drones, sensors and software have reduced the value of some traditional battlefield platforms.
• Europe is expected to spend about £454 billion on defense this year, up 75% since 2021.
• NATO needs a new doctrine for high-tech warfare.
• Defense primes have order backlogs but still trade at mid-30s multiples in some cases.
• Investor focus is shifting to picks-and-shovels defense tech: optics, thermal, night vision, laptops and drones.
• Theon is cited as a Greek/Cypriot optics and night-vision maker that has performed well.
• Fire Point is cited as a private Ukrainian cruise missile and drone technology company.