Bubble Boi - Selling Everything, the Kimi Shock, and Killing DRAM

Summary

Bubble Boy returns to discuss his massive AI-driven trading gains and the rationale behind his July “sold everything” tweet. He explains how the Kimi shock (a Chinese model using linear attention to fix memory size) threatens DRAM demand, while presenting specific longs in Intel, CXMT IPO, Alibaba, Nvidia, and Phison, and shorts in SPX and Micron. He also flags Qualcomm’s potential AI accelerator and the death of photonics.

• Bubble Boy has made more money this year than in all previous years combined, attributing it to his engineering edge in AI.
• The Kimi model uses linear attention, fixing memory size and potentially reducing future DRAM demand growth.
• He is net short SPX with negative 15% exposure, citing institutional profit-taking and capex sustainability doubts.
• Intel remains a high-conviction long: $20B capex guide is sufficient, 14A already has a committed customer, and massive revenue growth is ahead.
• He sees the CXMT IPO as extremely cheap at ~$130B valuation relative to Micron and DRAM bit shipments.
• Alibaba is viewed as a cheap way to play Chinese AI, owning major labs and a high-quality cloud business.
• Kimi is actually positive for Nvidia because it increases GPU utilization during inference.
• He is bullish on flash replacing DRAM, naming Phison (Faison) and eventually recommending shorting Micron when the trend appears.