Before You Buy Ethereum, Look at This First
Speakers
Julio Moreno
— Head of Research, CryptoQuant
Summary
Julio Moreno analyzes Ethereum's valuation using five metrics to gauge where the market stands in its cycle. He finds ETH significantly undervalued versus its cost basis, offering asymmetric upside, but the ETH/BTC ratio has not yet reached extreme undervaluation, suggesting more underperformance before a bottom.
- Ethereum trades at about 70% of its realized price, near the lower bound of its historical range.
- This undervaluation relative to cost basis suggests attractive risk-reward with limited downside.
- The MVRV ratio of Ether relative to Bitcoin has cooled to neutral but hasn't reached the green zone that historically signalled a bottom.
- ETH is expected to underperform Bitcoin further before a capitulation bottom materializes.
- Only two of the five metrics are currently flashing a bottom, implying more downside may be needed.
- The analysis aims to time potential ETH entries and anticipate shifts in relative strength.
Ideas
ETH undervalued vs cost basis, risk-reward favorable.
Ethereum's price is trading around 70% of its realized price (average cost basis), near the lower band of its historical oscillator. Historically, such undervaluation relative to cost basis has marked bottoming zones and offered favorable asymmetric risk-reward, with limited downside and upside toward the upper band around $5,000.
ETH/BTC not yet capitulated, monitor undervaluation.
The MVRV ratio of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin has declined from extreme overvaluation to a neutral zone. Historically, a bottom in ETH/BTC has coincided with the ratio reaching extreme undervaluation (green zone). The ratio has not yet reached that level, indicating that ETH likely needs further underperformance versus Bitcoin before a capitulation bottom forms.
Up Next
This Milk Road Macro video, published August 01, 2026, features Julio Moreno discussing ETH, ETH/BTC. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Julio Moreno · Tickers: ETH, ETH/BTC