Israel Needs New Leadership Says Aaron David Miller

Summary

Aaron David Miller outlines three US options regarding Iran—escalation, withdrawal, or negotiation—while noting that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer free transit. He believes Iran's regime is secure and that Israel may see new leadership within a year, with implications for regional tensions and diplomacy.

• Iran's Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, posing a risk to oil transit.
• US escalation is unlikely to alter Iran's position on the waterway.
• Both the US and Iran remain open to negotiations but face deep trust deficits.
• Iran's regime remains stable, with no evidence of impending political fractures.
• Israeli politics: Netanyahu is under legal pressure, and a new government is plausible within a year.
• Miller criticizes transactional diplomacy without authoritative negotiators.
• The interview highlights high geopolitical uncertainty but no direct market calls.