Trump Says Iran Strikes to Be Short, Asserts Hormuz Control

Summary

Dan Williams discusses the state of the US-Israel war with Iran after more than six months, including a shift toward a slow blockade of Iran and strikes aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz. He says the war is now framed as a war for Hormuz but remains tied to Iran's nuclear program and regime survival. He also assesses US midterm political risk and the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli campaign.

• Israel has been fighting a multi-front war since October 2023, with Iran as a culmination.
• The US is now handling Iran while Israel focuses on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• US strategy is described as a slow economic blockade on Iran plus occasional military strikes.
• Strait of Hormuz passage and Iran's nuclear program are central war aims.
• Iranian regime is seen in survival mode and unlikely to concede its nuclear program.
• Midterms may punish the incumbent party, with Republican voices questioning the war.
• Energy prices spiked on fresh fighting and open-ended war fears.