US Said It Resumes Iran Blockade Tuesday

Summary

Ray Takeyh of CFR discusses the US resumption of the Iran naval blockade, blaming ambiguous MOU language for the escalation. He warns that the conflict will cycle through escalation and de-escalation, that alternative oil routes remain vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and that Gulf traffic is permanently changed, with implications for market volatility and insurance costs. A diplomatic offramp via Oman is possible but won't end the recurring conflict.

• US resumes naval blockade of Iran after MOU interpretation dispute.
• Conflict is cyclical; permanent resolution unlikely due to waterway control.
• Alternative oil pipelines and harbors remain vulnerable to Iranian drones/missiles.
• Gulf oil traffic will not return to pre-crisis norms, causing ongoing market fluctuations.
• Iran has demonstrated the ability to damage the global economy with low-tech weapons.
• US alliances in the Gulf are frayed; small states are making side deals with Iran.
• Oman is attempting mediation, offering a possible offramp, but conflict will repeat.