The author holds put options on AVGO, citing concerns over aggressive non-GAAP accounting masking true cash flow, execution risk in the $69B VMware integration, and concentration risk in its AI custom silicon business. The market's unanimous bullishness and high multiples leave the stock vulnerable if any of these risks materialize, creating an asymmetric opportunity for downside bets. The risk/reward favors a short position at current prices due to multiple points of potential failure that are not priced in. VMware synergies materialize faster than expected; AI custom silicon demand remains robust and captive; strong non-GAAP earnings continue to drive investor enthusiasm.
The author holds put options on AVGO, citing concerns over aggressive non-GAAP accounting masking true cash flow, execution risk in the $69B VMware integration, and concentration risk in its AI custom silicon business. The market's unanimous bullishness and high multiples leave the stock vulnerable if any of these risks materialize, creating an asymmetric opportunity for downside bets. The risk/reward favors a short position at current prices due to multiple points of potential failure that are not priced in. VMware synergies materialize faster than expected; AI custom silicon demand remains robust and captive; strong non-GAAP earnings continue to drive investor enthusiasm.