The author cites the historical statistic that the US market has never been lower 20 years after any prior point. This implies that for any investor with a 20+ year horizon, the optimal strategy is to consistently invest in the broad US market and ignore short-term fluctuations. The logical trade idea inferred is a long-term, systematic investment in a broad US market index fund. The statistic ignores inflation-adjusted (real) returns, as highlighted in comments (e.g., 1929-1949, 1960s-1980s). It is also US-specific and does not account for structural economic changes or catastrophic scenarios.
The author cites the historical statistic that the US market has never been lower 20 years after any prior point. This implies that for any investor with a 20+ year horizon, the optimal strategy is to consistently invest in the broad US market and ignore short-term fluctuations. The logical trade idea inferred is a long-term, systematic investment in a broad US market index fund. The statistic ignores inflation-adjusted (real) returns, as highlighted in comments (e.g., 1929-1949, 1960s-1980s). It is also US-specific and does not account for structural economic changes or catastrophic scenarios.