MCD is down 20-25% from highs, P/E ~22, dividend yield ~3%, with a dominant franchise model. The market has overreacted to temporary concerns (Ozempic, CEO drama, inflation) while MCD’s core business (affordable convenience for lower-income/repeat customers) remains intact. The pullback offers a value entry into a high-quality compounder with a wide moat and predictable cash flows. Continued consumer spending slowdown, further margin compression from wage/food inflation, or a more severe impact from GLP-1 drugs on frequency.
MCD is down 20-25% from highs, P/E ~22, dividend yield ~3%, with a dominant franchise model. The market has overreacted to temporary concerns (Ozempic, CEO drama, inflation) while MCD’s core business (affordable convenience for lower-income/repeat customers) remains intact. The pullback offers a value entry into a high-quality compounder with a wide moat and predictable cash flows. Continued consumer spending slowdown, further margin compression from wage/food inflation, or a more severe impact from GLP-1 drugs on frequency.