Author states a closed Hormuz is "bullish for the market. Somehow." The implication is that lower oil prices (from the bearish oil thesis) could lift equity indices, or that OPEX mechanics are the dominant market force. A vague link between a geopolitical event and general market positivity, heavily qualified ("Somehow"). Geopolitical instability is typically a market negative. The core premise (closed strait) is disputed in comments.
Author states a closed Hormuz is "bullish for the market. Somehow." The implication is that lower oil prices (from the bearish oil thesis) could lift equity indices, or that OPEX mechanics are the dominant market force. A vague link between a geopolitical event and general market positivity, heavily qualified ("Somehow"). Geopolitical instability is typically a market negative. The core premise (closed strait) is disputed in comments.
Author states "Hormuz isn't open" and suggests this is "bearish for oil prices," contrary to the typical geopolitical risk premium. If the market interprets a closure as bearish (perhaps due to demand destruction or coordinated releases), it could pressure oil prices. A contrarian, low-conviction idea that a major supply chokepoint closure will not spike oil. Verified closure would be massively bullish for oil. Comments show live views of ships in the strait, contradicting the "closed" claim.
Author states "Hormuz isn't open" and suggests this is "bearish for oil prices," contrary to the typical geopolitical risk premium. If the market interprets a closure as bearish (perhaps due to demand destruction or coordinated releases), it could pressure oil prices. A contrarian, low-conviction idea that a major supply chokepoint closure will not spike oil. Verified closure would be massively bullish for oil. Comments show live views of ships in the strait, contradicting the "closed" claim.