Net joins declined, leading to a 2026 guidance cut and suspension of the Black Card price hike; expansion continues despite weak demand. Negative operational metrics (declining memberships, halted pricing power) suggest further downside risk, especially after a prior high valuation. The stock is under pressure from fundamental weakness, and the author’s doubt about a rebound aligns with a short-term bearish bias. A surprise improvement in next quarter’s sign-ups or a broader market rally in fitness/consumer stocks could invalidate the short.
Net joins declined, leading to a 2026 guidance cut and suspension of the Black Card price hike; expansion continues despite weak demand. Negative operational metrics (declining memberships, halted pricing power) suggest further downside risk, especially after a prior high valuation. The stock is under pressure from fundamental weakness, and the author’s doubt about a rebound aligns with a short-term bearish bias. A surprise improvement in next quarter’s sign-ups or a broader market rally in fitness/consumer stocks could invalidate the short.