The first post‑IPO unlock releases 911.5M shares (142% of the 638.9M IPO float), plus up to 456M more if the Q2 price trigger is met. This wave of newly saleable shares creates severe supply pressure, likely overwhelming any buying demand and pushing the stock lower. Short SPCX into the unlock window to capitalize on the predictable dilution event. The unlock may already be priced in; strong Q2 earnings or broader market tailwinds could absorb the supply; the price trigger may not be met, reducing the total unlock.
The first post‑IPO unlock releases 911.5M shares (142% of the 638.9M IPO float), plus up to 456M more if the Q2 price trigger is met. This wave of newly saleable shares creates severe supply pressure, likely overwhelming any buying demand and pushing the stock lower. Short SPCX into the unlock window to capitalize on the predictable dilution event. The unlock may already be priced in; strong Q2 earnings or broader market tailwinds could absorb the supply; the price trigger may not be met, reducing the total unlock.