u/DueDilligenceTrader

AI token prices are trending lower while hyperscaler stocks remain elevated. Continued price compression on the revenue side could eventually erode pricing power for GPU suppliers like NVDA, leading to margin pressure and multiple compression. If falling tokens reflect structural oversupply instead of pure efficiency gains, NVDA may face a headwind as the market re-rates future earnings expectations. Token price declines may be offset by volume growth (Jevons paradox); hyperscaler capex remains strong; efficiency could expand total compute demand.

Apollo’s private credit fund saw redemption requests jump from 11% to 17% of NAV, with only the 5% quarterly limit being met; industry-wide ~$15B in requests with <40% fulfilled. If redemption pressure persists or accelerates, AUM growth stalls, fee revenue softens, and investors reprice the stock lower despite no credit losses – the post directly asks whether APO will “slowly bleed again.” Short APO on the thesis that liquidity concerns will erode sentiment and valuation, reversing the recent 30% rally, even if underlying assets remain sound. Redemptions plateau or decline; Apollo’s insurance/retirement businesses offset fund outflows; broader market rally lifts all financials.