u/corbanx92

Micron’s $100B HBM TAM, with 60% going to GPUs, implies $600B GPU TAM; NVDA captures ~35-40% of AI CapEx, leading to ~$465B data center revenue. This revenue stream supports ~$325B EBITDA, giving a 14x forward EV/EBITDA vs current ~30x – a massive discount to AI peers. NVDA is mispriced relative to its TAM and margin profile, offering a potential re-rating toward 25x EV/EBITDA, implying ~75% upside. Hyperscaler CapEx slowdown, HBM supply constraints, competitive pressure from AMD or custom chips, margin compression from higher R&D spend.

MU’s revenue is ~72% DRAM and ~13% NAND, both cyclical markets. HBM is only 8% of revenue, and even at 20% it leaves 80% exposed to boom-bust dynamics. The market is pricing MU as if the memory cycle is dead, yet CEO confirmed non-HBM margins are currently higher than HBM margins. Any slowdown in enterprise DRAM demand or new Chinese competitors could collapse the multiple from x30 to historical x3-7. Short MU as a mean-reversion play on an overvalued cyclical stock where HBM hype has decoupled price from underlying cyclical risk. AI capex sustains longer than expected; MU captures >30% HBM market share; DRAM/NAND demand stays elevated due to AI inference growth.